Sun, Sep 17 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 University Stadium
Albuquerque, NM
·
Turf
·
39,224 cap
New Mexico State✈ 192 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
New Mexico State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -2.5
O/U 52.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2023 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | New Mexico State vs Massachusetts | -7.0L30–41 | 45.5 | L30–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/2 | New Mexico State vs Western Illinois | -21.0W58–21 | 55.0 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +9.0L17–33 | 54.5 | L17–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | New Mexico State at New Mexico | +2.5W27–17 | 52.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | New Mexico State at Hawai'i | +4.0L17–20 | 54.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/4 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | -6.5W34–17 | 49.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/11 | New Mexico State vs Sam Houston | -4.5W27–13 | 43.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/18 | New Mexico State at UTEP | -3.0W28–7 | 48.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/24 | New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech | +3.0W27–24 | 55.0 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee | -3.0W13–7 | 55.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | New Mexico State at Western Kentucky | +4.5W38–29 | 55.5 | W38–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | New Mexico State at Auburn | +25.5W31–10 | 48.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State | -2.0W20–17 | 48.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/1 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +10.5L35–49 | 54.0 | L35–49 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | New Mexico State vs Fresno State | -3.0L10–37 | 52.5 | L10–37 | U | N |
New Mexico 2023 Schedule
New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | New Mexico at Texas A&M | +37.5L10–52 | 48.5 | L10–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech | -16.0W56–10 | 51.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | New Mexico vs New Mexico State | -2.5L17–27 | 52.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | New Mexico at Massachusetts | +3.5W34–31 | 48.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | New Mexico at Wyoming | +14.5L26–35 | 40.5 | L26–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | New Mexico vs San José State | +6.5L24–52 | 55.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | New Mexico vs Hawai'i | +1.5W42–21 | 60.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | New Mexico at Nevada | -1.0L24–34 | 50.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | New Mexico vs UNLV | +10.0L14–56 | 61.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | New Mexico at Boise State | +27.5L14–42 | 58.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | New Mexico at Fresno State | +22.5W25–17 | 58.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | New Mexico vs Utah State | +4.5L41–44 | 58.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
9–8 (53%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 2
#1
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
8–26 (24%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Bryant Vincent
Yr 1
#1
DC
Troy Reffett
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓