Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Kyle Field
College Station, TX
·
Turf
·
102,733 cap
New Mexico✈ 671 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas A&M -37.5
O/U 48.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas A&M
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2023 Schedule
New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | New Mexico at Texas A&M | +37.5L10–52 | 48.5 | L10–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech | -16.0W56–10 | 51.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | New Mexico vs New Mexico State | -2.5L17–27 | 52.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | New Mexico at Massachusetts | +3.5W34–31 | 48.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | New Mexico at Wyoming | +14.5L26–35 | 40.5 | L26–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | New Mexico vs San José State | +6.5L24–52 | 55.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | New Mexico vs Hawai'i | +1.5W42–21 | 60.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | New Mexico at Nevada | -1.0L24–34 | 50.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | New Mexico vs UNLV | +10.0L14–56 | 61.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | New Mexico at Boise State | +27.5L14–42 | 58.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | New Mexico at Fresno State | +22.5W25–17 | 58.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | New Mexico vs Utah State | +4.5L41–44 | 58.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
Texas A&M 2023 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Texas A&M vs New Mexico | -37.5W52–10 | 48.5 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Texas A&M at Miami | -3.0L33–48 | 50.5 | L33–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Texas A&M vs UL Monroe | -36.5W47–3 | 53.5 | W47–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Texas A&M vs Auburn | -9.5W27–10 | 51.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | -6.5W34–22 | 53.5 | W34–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Texas A&M vs Alabama | +2.5L20–26 | 45.0 | L20–26 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Texas A&M at Tennessee | +3.0L13–20 | 54.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Texas A&M vs South Carolina | -17.0W30–17 | 51.5 | W30–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Texas A&M at Ole Miss | +3.0L35–38 | 52.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Texas A&M vs Mississippi State | -16.5W51–10 | 40.5 | W51–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Texas A&M vs Abilene Christian | -40.5W38–10 | 54.5 | W38–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Texas A&M at LSU | +10.5L30–42 | 67.5 | L30–42 | O | N |
| Wed 12/27 | Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State | +4.0L23–31 | 56.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas A&M
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas A&M
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas A&M
86.5 — 5.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas A&M won by 42
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas A&M, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
8–26 (24%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Bryant Vincent
Yr 1
#1
DC
Troy Reffett
Yr 1
#1
Texas A&M
Jimbo Fisher #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓