Sat, Sep 23 2023
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Ohio✈ 163 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Ohio wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ohio -13
O/U 45.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2023 Schedule
Ohio's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Ohio at San Diego State | +2.0L13–20 | 48.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/2 | Ohio vs Long Island University | -34.5W27–10 | 58.0 | W27–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Ohio at Florida Atlantic | +3.5W17–10 | 61.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Ohio vs Iowa State | +1.5W10–7 | 42.0 | W10–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ohio at Bowling Green | -13.0W38–7 | 45.0 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Ohio vs Kent State | -24.5W42–17 | 45.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Ohio at Northern Illinois | -5.5L13–23 | 45.0 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Ohio vs Western Michigan | -16.5W20–17 | 52.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | -7.5L16–30 | 39.0 | L16–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/7 | Ohio at Buffalo | -9.5W20–10 | 45.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/15 | Ohio vs Central Michigan | -11.5W34–20 | 48.5 | W34–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Ohio at Akron | -13.5W25–14 | 41.5 | W25–14 | U | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Ohio vs Georgia Southern | +1.5W41–21 | 48.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
Bowling Green 2023 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Bowling Green at Liberty | +8.5L24–34 | 48.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois | -17.0W38–15 | 48.0 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Bowling Green at Michigan | +40.5L6–31 | 53.5 | L6–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Bowling Green vs Ohio | +13.0L7–38 | 45.0 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Bowling Green at Georgia Tech | +21.0W38–27 | 49.5 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) | +7.5L0–27 | 43.0 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +3.0W24–14 | 44.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Bowling Green vs Akron | -7.0W41–14 | 37.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Bowling Green vs Ball State | -4.5W24–21 | 39.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Wed 11/8 | Bowling Green at Kent State | -10.5W49–19 | 41.5 | W49–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/14 | Bowling Green vs Toledo | +9.5L31–32 | 48.5 | L31–32 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/21 | Bowling Green at Western Michigan | -2.0W34–10 | 54.5 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Minnesota | +2.5L24–30 | 45.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +11.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
16–14 (53%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Scott Isphording
Yr 2
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 2
#1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
14–31 (31%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 1
#1
DC
Sammy Lawanson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓