Bowling Green at Georgia Tech Week 5 College Football Matchup Bowling Green at Georgia Tech Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 30 2023 · Week 5 · 🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field Atlanta, GA · Turf · 55,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 527 miSame TZ
38 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Bowling Green
23
Georgia Tech
30
P&R Line Georgia Tech -7.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -21 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Georgia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Georgia Tech wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -21
O/U 49.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Georgia Tech · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2023 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Bowling Green at Liberty+8.5L24–3448.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/9Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois-17.0W38–1548.0W38–15OY
Sat 9/16Bowling Green at Michigan+40.5L6–3153.5L6–31UY
Sat 9/23Bowling Green vs Ohio+13.0L7–3845.0L7–38UN
Sat 9/30Bowling Green at Georgia Tech+21.0W38–2749.5W38–27OY
Sat 10/7Bowling Green at Miami (OH)+7.5L0–2743.0L0–27UN
Sat 10/14Bowling Green at Buffalo+3.0W24–1444.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/21Bowling Green vs Akron-7.0W41–1437.0W41–14OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/1Bowling Green vs Ball State-4.5W24–2139.5W24–21ON
Wed 11/8Bowling Green at Kent State-10.5W49–1941.5W49–19OY
Tue 11/14Bowling Green vs Toledo+9.5L31–3248.5L31–32OY
Tue 11/21Bowling Green at Western Michigan-2.0W34–1054.5W34–10UY
Tue 12/26Bowling Green vs Minnesota+2.5L24–3045.0L24–30ON
Georgia Tech 2023 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Georgia Tech vs Louisville+7.0L34–3949.5L34–39OY
Sat 9/9Georgia Tech vs South Carolina State-44.0W48–1353.5W48–13ON
Sat 9/16Georgia Tech at Ole Miss+17.0L23–4861.5L23–48ON
Sat 9/23Georgia Tech at Wake Forest+3.5W30–1658.5W30–16UY
Sat 9/30Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green-21.0L27–3849.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/7Georgia Tech at Miami+19.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Georgia Tech vs Boston College-5.5L23–3857.0L23–38ON
Sat 10/28Georgia Tech vs North Carolina+12.0W46–4265.5W46–42OY
Sat 11/4Georgia Tech at Virginia+2.0W45–1757.5W45–17OY
Sat 11/11Georgia Tech at Clemson+17.5L21–4255.5L21–42ON
Sat 11/18Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-6.5W31–2251.5W31–22OY
Sat 11/25Georgia Tech vs Georgia+23.0L23–3159.5L23–31UY
Fri 12/22Georgia Tech vs UCF+6.0W30–1766.5W30–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Bowling Green #74
+0.413
Georgia Tech #32
+0.422
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #72
+0.567
Georgia Tech #31
+0.579
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #41
0.174
Georgia Tech #34
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Georgia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #87
+7.480
Georgia Tech #31
+7.977
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #81
+0.869
Georgia Tech #36
+0.868
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #4
66.2
Georgia Tech #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Georgia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Bowling Green
-9.7
Georgia Tech
1.1
Offense Rating
Bowling Green
10.9
Georgia Tech
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Bowling Green
20.7
Georgia Tech
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Bowling Green #104
0.00
Georgia Tech #16
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #44
1.00
Georgia Tech #88
2.00
Georgia Tech +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Bowling Green #1
25.3
Georgia Tech #1
52.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #66
67.3
Georgia Tech #81
36.6
Georgia Tech +27.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
29.8 — 54.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 11
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Georgia Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
14–31 (31%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 1 #1
DC Sammy Lawanson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
5–6 (46%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself