Wed, Nov 15 2023
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toledo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Toledo entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Toledo wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Toledo wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Toledo -9.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Toledo
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2023 Schedule
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Toledo at Illinois | +7.0L28–30 | 45.5 | L28–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Toledo vs Texas Southern | -40.5W71–3 | 61.0 | W71–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Toledo vs San José State | -9.0W21–17 | 56.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Toledo vs Western Michigan | -21.5W49–31 | 52.5 | W49–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Toledo vs Northern Illinois | -13.0W35–33 | 48.0 | W35–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Toledo at Massachusetts | -19.0W41–24 | 55.5 | W41–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Toledo at Ball State | -17.5W13–6 | 48.5 | W13–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Toledo at Miami (OH) | -2.0W21–17 | 46.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Toledo vs Buffalo | -14.0W31–13 | 47.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/8 | Toledo vs Eastern Michigan | -19.5W49–23 | 45.5 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/14 | Toledo at Bowling Green | -9.5W32–31 | 48.5 | W32–31 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Toledo at Central Michigan | -12.5W32–17 | 54.5 | W32–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Toledo vs Miami (OH) | -8.5L14–23 | 46.0 | L14–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/30 | Toledo vs Wyoming | +4.5L15–16 | 43.5 | L15–16 | U | Y |
Bowling Green 2023 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Bowling Green at Liberty | +8.5L24–34 | 48.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois | -17.0W38–15 | 48.0 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Bowling Green at Michigan | +40.5L6–31 | 53.5 | L6–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Bowling Green vs Ohio | +13.0L7–38 | 45.0 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Bowling Green at Georgia Tech | +21.0W38–27 | 49.5 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) | +7.5L0–27 | 43.0 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +3.0W24–14 | 44.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Bowling Green vs Akron | -7.0W41–14 | 37.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Bowling Green vs Ball State | -4.5W24–21 | 39.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Wed 11/8 | Bowling Green at Kent State | -10.5W49–19 | 41.5 | W49–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/14 | Bowling Green vs Toledo | +9.5L31–32 | 48.5 | L31–32 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/21 | Bowling Green at Western Michigan | -2.0W34–10 | 54.5 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Minnesota | +2.5L24–30 | 45.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +0.45
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +19.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
67.1 — 13.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Toledo won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Toledo with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
56–33 (63%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Hallett
Yr 3
#1
DC
Vince Kehres
Yr 3
#1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
14–31 (31%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 1
#1
DC
Sammy Lawanson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓