Sat, Oct 14 2023
·
Week 7
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Bowling Green✈ 272 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Buffalo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Buffalo entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Buffalo wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -3
O/U 44.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Bowling Green
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2023 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Bowling Green at Liberty | +8.5L24–34 | 48.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois | -17.0W38–15 | 48.0 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Bowling Green at Michigan | +40.5L6–31 | 53.5 | L6–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Bowling Green vs Ohio | +13.0L7–38 | 45.0 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Bowling Green at Georgia Tech | +21.0W38–27 | 49.5 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) | +7.5L0–27 | 43.0 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +3.0W24–14 | 44.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Bowling Green vs Akron | -7.0W41–14 | 37.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Bowling Green vs Ball State | -4.5W24–21 | 39.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Wed 11/8 | Bowling Green at Kent State | -10.5W49–19 | 41.5 | W49–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/14 | Bowling Green vs Toledo | +9.5L31–32 | 48.5 | L31–32 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/21 | Bowling Green at Western Michigan | -2.0W34–10 | 54.5 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Minnesota | +2.5L24–30 | 45.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
Buffalo 2023 Schedule
Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Buffalo at Wisconsin | +29.0L17–38 | 52.5 | L17–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Buffalo vs Fordham | -23.5L37–40 | 55.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Buffalo vs Liberty | +2.5L27–55 | 54.0 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Buffalo at Louisiana | +10.5L38–45 | 57.5 | L38–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Buffalo at Akron | +3.0W13–10 | 53.0 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Buffalo vs Central Michigan | +2.5W37–13 | 51.5 | W37–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -3.0L14–24 | 44.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Buffalo at Kent State | -6.5W24–6 | 44.0 | W24–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Buffalo at Toledo | +14.0L13–31 | 47.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Tue 11/7 | Buffalo vs Ohio | +9.5L10–20 | 45.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Wed 11/15 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +7.5L10–23 | 36.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Tue 11/21 | Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan | -6.5L11–24 | 38.5 | L11–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Buffalo, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
14–31 (31%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 1
#1
DC
Sammy Lawanson
Yr 1
#1
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
11–17 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
DJ Mangas
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robert Wright
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓