Kansas at Iowa State Week 10 College Football Matchup Kansas at Iowa State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 4 2023 · Week 10 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Kansas✈ 227 miSame TZ
Away
28 21
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
26
Iowa State
27
P&R Line Iowa State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -2.5 · O/U 53.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -2.5
O/U 53.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2023 Schedule
Kansas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Kansas vs Missouri State-32.5W48–1760.5W48–17ON
Fri 9/8Kansas vs Illinois-3.5W34–2357.5W34–23UY
Sat 9/16Kansas at Nevada-28.5W31–2458.0W31–24UN
Sat 9/23Kansas vs BYU-9.0W38–2755.5W38–27OY
Sat 9/30Kansas at Texas+15.5L14–4061.0L14–40UN
Sat 10/7Kansas vs UCF+2.0W51–2265.0W51–22OY
Sat 10/14Kansas at Oklahoma State-3.0L32–3954.0L32–39ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Kansas vs Oklahoma+7.0W38–3366.5W38–33OY
Sat 11/4Kansas at Iowa State+2.5W28–2153.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/11Kansas vs Texas Tech-3.5L13–1661.5L13–16UN
Sat 11/18Kansas vs Kansas State+7.0L27–3160.5L27–31UY
Sat 11/25Kansas at Cincinnati-7.5W49–1659.5W49–16OY
Tue 12/26Kansas vs UNLV-8.0W49–3664.5W49–36OY
Iowa State 2023 Schedule
Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-7.0W30–940.5W30–9UY
Sat 9/9Iowa State vs Iowa+3.5L13–2035.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/16Iowa State at Ohio-1.5L7–1042.0L7–10UN
Sat 9/23Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-3.5W34–2736.0W34–27OY
Sat 9/30Iowa State at Oklahoma+19.5L20–5048.5L20–50ON
Sat 10/7Iowa State vs TCU+6.5W27–1452.5W27–14UY
Sat 10/14Iowa State at Cincinnati+4.0W30–1042.5W30–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Iowa State at Baylor-3.0W30–1847.0W30–18OY
Sat 11/4Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L21–2853.0L21–28UN
Sat 11/11Iowa State at BYU-7.5W45–1340.5W45–13OY
Sat 11/18Iowa State vs Texas+7.5L16–2643.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/25Iowa State at Kansas State+9.5W42–3546.0W42–35OY
Fri 12/29Iowa State vs Memphis-10.5L26–3658.0L26–36ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas #5
+0.531
Iowa State #57
+0.411
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #1
+0.951
Iowa State #25
+0.647
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas #95
0.150
Iowa State #76
0.159
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #27
+7.776
Iowa State #83
+7.870
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas #13
+0.873
Iowa State #119
+0.817
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas #99
71.6
Iowa State #48
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
Iowa State
4.1
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
Iowa State
16.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #21
1.14
Iowa State #36
1.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #51
1.14
Iowa State #40
0.57
Kansas +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
56.1
Iowa State #1
47.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #29
25.8
Iowa State #54
35.7
Kansas +8.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
11–17 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
47–42 (53%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Nathan Scheelhaase Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself