Iowa at Iowa State Week 2 College Football Matchup Iowa at Iowa State Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 9 2023 · Week 2 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Iowa✈ 110 miSame TZ
Away
20 13
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa
16
ISU +3.5
Iowa State
21
P&R Line Iowa State -5
P&R Total O/U 37.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Iowa -3.5 · O/U 35.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Iowa wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa -3.5
O/U 35.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Iowa State 2nd straight Home Game
Iowa 2023 Schedule
Iowa's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Iowa vs Utah State-24.0W24–1443.5W24–14UN
Sat 9/9Iowa at Iowa State-3.5W20–1335.5W20–13UY
Sat 9/16Iowa vs Western Michigan-28.5W41–1043.5W41–10OY
Sat 9/23Iowa at Penn State+14.0L0–3138.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/30Iowa vs Michigan State-10.0W26–1636.5W26–16ON
Sat 10/7Iowa vs Purdue-2.5W20–1438.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/14Iowa at Wisconsin+8.0W15–633.5W15–6UY
Sat 10/21Iowa vs Minnesota-3.0L10–1230.5L10–12UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4Iowa vs Northwestern-4.5W10–730.5W10–7UN
Sat 11/11Iowa vs Rutgers+2.5W22–027.5W22–0UY
Sat 11/18Iowa vs Illinois-2.5W15–1333.5W15–13UN
Fri 11/24Iowa at Nebraska+3.0W13–1025.5W13–10UY
Sat 12/2Iowa vs Michigan+23.5L0–2635.0L0–26UN
Mon 1/1Iowa vs Tennessee+4.5L0–3537.0L0–35UN
Iowa State 2023 Schedule
Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-7.0W30–940.5W30–9UY
Sat 9/9Iowa State vs Iowa+3.5L13–2035.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/16Iowa State at Ohio-1.5L7–1042.0L7–10UN
Sat 9/23Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-3.5W34–2736.0W34–27OY
Sat 9/30Iowa State at Oklahoma+19.5L20–5048.5L20–50ON
Sat 10/7Iowa State vs TCU+6.5W27–1452.5W27–14UY
Sat 10/14Iowa State at Cincinnati+4.0W30–1042.5W30–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Iowa State at Baylor-3.0W30–1847.0W30–18OY
Sat 11/4Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L21–2853.0L21–28UN
Sat 11/11Iowa State at BYU-7.5W45–1340.5W45–13OY
Sat 11/18Iowa State vs Texas+7.5L16–2643.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/25Iowa State at Kansas State+9.5W42–3546.0W42–35OY
Fri 12/29Iowa State vs Memphis-10.5L26–3658.0L26–36ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa #133
+0.096
Iowa State #57
+0.201
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa #125
+0.354
Iowa State #25
+0.499
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa #64
0.163
Iowa State #76
0.159
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa #126
+6.207
Iowa State #83
+6.371
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa #133
+0.721
Iowa State #119
+0.710
Iowa Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa #18
68.8
Iowa State #48
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa
11.5
Iowa State
3.1
Offense Rating
Iowa
18.6
Iowa State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa
7.1
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa #106
1.00
Iowa State #36
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa #62
0.00
Iowa State #40
0.00
Iowa +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa #1
93.2
Iowa State #1
86.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa #41
5.4
Iowa State #54
7.1
Iowa +6.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa
6.2 — 83.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
189–115 (62%) · Yr 25 at school
OC Brian Ferentz Yr 3 #1
DC Phil Parker Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
47–42 (53%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Nathan Scheelhaase Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself