Texas at Iowa State Week 12 College Football Matchup Texas at Iowa State Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 19 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Texas✈ 841 miSame TZ
Away
26 16
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas
29
Iowa State
18
P&R Line Texas -11
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas -7.5 · O/U 43.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Texas wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas -7.5
O/U 43.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Texas 2nd straight Road Game
Texas 2023 Schedule
Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas vs Rice-35.5W37–1059.0W37–10UN
Sat 9/9Texas at Alabama+7.0W34–2453.0W34–24OY
Sat 9/16Texas vs Wyoming-31.0W31–1048.5W31–10UN
Sat 9/23Texas at Baylor-17.5W38–649.5W38–6UY
Sat 9/30Texas vs Kansas-15.5W40–1461.0W40–14UY
Sat 10/7Texas vs Oklahoma-4.0L30–3462.0L30–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Texas at Houston-24.0W31–2460.5W31–24UN
Sat 10/28Texas vs BYU-20.5W35–648.5W35–6UY
Sat 11/4Texas vs Kansas State-4.0W33–3049.5W33–30ON
Sat 11/11Texas at TCU-13.0W29–2656.0W29–26UN
Sat 11/18Texas at Iowa State-7.5W26–1643.5W26–16UY
Fri 11/24Texas vs Texas Tech-16.5W57–753.5W57–7OY
Sat 12/2Texas vs Oklahoma State-14.0W49–2155.0W49–21OY
Mon 1/1Texas vs Washington-3.0L31–3761.5L31–37ON
Iowa State 2023 Schedule
Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-7.0W30–940.5W30–9UY
Sat 9/9Iowa State vs Iowa+3.5L13–2035.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/16Iowa State at Ohio-1.5L7–1042.0L7–10UN
Sat 9/23Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-3.5W34–2736.0W34–27OY
Sat 9/30Iowa State at Oklahoma+19.5L20–5048.5L20–50ON
Sat 10/7Iowa State vs TCU+6.5W27–1452.5W27–14UY
Sat 10/14Iowa State at Cincinnati+4.0W30–1042.5W30–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Iowa State at Baylor-3.0W30–1847.0W30–18OY
Sat 11/4Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L21–2853.0L21–28UN
Sat 11/11Iowa State at BYU-7.5W45–1340.5W45–13OY
Sat 11/18Iowa State vs Texas+7.5L16–2643.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/25Iowa State at Kansas State+9.5W42–3546.0W42–35OY
Fri 12/29Iowa State vs Memphis-10.5L26–3658.0L26–36ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas #33
+0.410
Iowa State #57
+0.308
Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas #38
+0.632
Iowa State #25
+0.659
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas #21
0.187
Iowa State #76
0.159
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas #75
+7.192
Iowa State #83
+7.157
Texas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas #43
+0.839
Iowa State #119
+0.727
Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas #25
69.0
Iowa State #48
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas
27.2
Iowa State
4.1
Offense Rating
Texas
29.5
Iowa State
16.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas
2.3
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas #4
1.90
Iowa State #36
1.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas #14
0.60
Iowa State #40
0.44
Texas +0.68
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas #1
71.0
Iowa State #1
48.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas #3
13.9
Iowa State #54
37.7
Texas +22.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
16–12 (57%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 3 #1
DC Jeff Choate Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
47–42 (53%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Nathan Scheelhaase Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself