Iowa State at Kansas State Week 13 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Kansas State Matchup - Week 13
Sun, Nov 26 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 248 miSame TZ
42 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
21
Kansas State
30
P&R Line Kansas State -9.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -9.5 · O/U 46.0
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -9.5
O/U 46.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2023 Schedule
Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-7.0W30–940.5W30–9UY
Sat 9/9Iowa State vs Iowa+3.5L13–2035.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/16Iowa State at Ohio-1.5L7–1042.0L7–10UN
Sat 9/23Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-3.5W34–2736.0W34–27OY
Sat 9/30Iowa State at Oklahoma+19.5L20–5048.5L20–50ON
Sat 10/7Iowa State vs TCU+6.5W27–1452.5W27–14UY
Sat 10/14Iowa State at Cincinnati+4.0W30–1042.5W30–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Iowa State at Baylor-3.0W30–1847.0W30–18OY
Sat 11/4Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L21–2853.0L21–28UN
Sat 11/11Iowa State at BYU-7.5W45–1340.5W45–13OY
Sat 11/18Iowa State vs Texas+7.5L16–2643.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/25Iowa State at Kansas State+9.5W42–3546.0W42–35OY
Fri 12/29Iowa State vs Memphis-10.5L26–3658.0L26–36ON
Kansas State 2023 Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.5W45–056.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/9Kansas State vs Troy-15.0W42–1350.0W42–13OY
Sat 9/16Kansas State at Missouri-3.5L27–3048.0L27–30ON
Sat 9/23Kansas State vs UCF-6.0W44–3153.5W44–31OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.5L21–2953.5L21–29UN
Sat 10/14Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.0W38–2157.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/21Kansas State vs TCU-5.5W41–360.0W41–3UY
Sat 10/28Kansas State vs Houston-17.5W41–061.0W41–0UY
Sat 11/4Kansas State at Texas+4.0L30–3349.5L30–33OY
Sat 11/11Kansas State vs Baylor-20.5W59–2555.5W59–25OY
Sat 11/18Kansas State at Kansas-7.0W31–2760.5W31–27UN
Sat 11/25Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.5L35–4246.0L35–42ON
Thu 12/28Kansas State vs NC State-3.0W28–1948.5W28–19UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #57
+0.361
Kansas State #34
+0.409
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #25
+0.632
Kansas State #60
+0.588
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #76
0.159
Kansas State #42
0.174
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #83
+6.707
Kansas State #1
+8.459
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #119
+0.746
Kansas State #18
+0.865
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #48
69.8
Kansas State #40
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
4.1
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Iowa State
16.7
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #36
1.10
Kansas State #20
1.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #40
0.60
Kansas State #46
0.90
Kansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
44.9
Kansas State #1
60.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #54
39.8
Kansas State #20
25.0
Kansas State +15.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
24.1 — 49.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
47–42 (53%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Nathan Scheelhaase Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
32–21 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself