Sun, Nov 26 2023
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Kansas✈ 575 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Kansas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Kansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas -7.5
O/U 59.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2023 Schedule
Kansas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Kansas vs Missouri State | -32.5W48–17 | 60.5 | W48–17 | O | N |
| Fri 9/8 | Kansas vs Illinois | -3.5W34–23 | 57.5 | W34–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Kansas at Nevada | -28.5W31–24 | 58.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Kansas vs BYU | -9.0W38–27 | 55.5 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Kansas at Texas | +15.5L14–40 | 61.0 | L14–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Kansas vs UCF | +2.0W51–22 | 65.0 | W51–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Kansas at Oklahoma State | -3.0L32–39 | 54.0 | L32–39 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Kansas vs Oklahoma | +7.0W38–33 | 66.5 | W38–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Kansas at Iowa State | +2.5W28–21 | 53.0 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Kansas vs Texas Tech | -3.5L13–16 | 61.5 | L13–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kansas vs Kansas State | +7.0L27–31 | 60.5 | L27–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Kansas at Cincinnati | -7.5W49–16 | 59.5 | W49–16 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Kansas vs UNLV | -8.0W49–36 | 64.5 | W49–36 | O | Y |
Cincinnati 2023 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky | -21.5W66–13 | 57.5 | W66–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Cincinnati at Pittsburgh | +6.5W27–21 | 44.5 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) | -14.5L24–31 | 44.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Cincinnati vs Oklahoma | +13.0L6–20 | 58.0 | L6–20 | U | N |
| Fri 9/29 | Cincinnati at BYU | +1.0L27–35 | 47.5 | L27–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Cincinnati vs Iowa State | -4.0L10–30 | 42.5 | L10–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Cincinnati vs Baylor | -2.5L29–32 | 51.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Cincinnati at Oklahoma State | +7.0L13–45 | 53.0 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Cincinnati vs UCF | +3.5L26–28 | 59.5 | L26–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Cincinnati at Houston | +3.5W24–14 | 53.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Cincinnati at West Virginia | +4.5L21–42 | 52.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Cincinnati vs Kansas | +7.5L16–49 | 59.5 | L16–49 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kansas Edge
Kansas +0.90
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kansas Edge
Kansas +17.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kansas with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
11–17 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brian Borland
Yr 3
#1
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓