Sun, Oct 8 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, IA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
TCU✈ 674 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
TCU
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
TCU entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
TCU wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
TCU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
TCU -6.5
O/U 52.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Iowa State
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
TCU 2023 Schedule
TCU's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | TCU vs Colorado | -20.5L42–45 | 59.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | TCU vs Nicholls | -41.5W41–6 | 59.5 | W41–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | TCU at Houston | -7.5W36–13 | 64.0 | W36–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | TCU vs SMU | -7.0W34–17 | 63.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | TCU vs West Virginia | -14.0L21–24 | 52.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | TCU at Iowa State | -6.5L14–27 | 52.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | TCU vs BYU | -5.0W44–11 | 52.5 | W44–11 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | TCU at Kansas State | +5.5L3–41 | 60.0 | L3–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/2 | TCU at Texas Tech | +2.5L28–35 | 59.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | TCU vs Texas | +13.0L26–29 | 56.0 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | TCU vs Baylor | -13.0W42–17 | 62.0 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | TCU at Oklahoma | +12.5L45–69 | 66.5 | L45–69 | O | N |
Iowa State 2023 Schedule
Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Iowa State vs Northern Iowa | -7.0W30–9 | 40.5 | W30–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Iowa State vs Iowa | +3.5L13–20 | 35.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Iowa State at Ohio | -1.5L7–10 | 42.0 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma State | -3.5W34–27 | 36.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Iowa State at Oklahoma | +19.5L20–50 | 48.5 | L20–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Iowa State vs TCU | +6.5W27–14 | 52.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Iowa State at Cincinnati | +4.0W30–10 | 42.5 | W30–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Iowa State at Baylor | -3.0W30–18 | 47.0 | W30–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -2.5L21–28 | 53.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Iowa State at BYU | -7.5W45–13 | 40.5 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Iowa State vs Texas | +7.5L16–26 | 43.5 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Iowa State at Kansas State | +9.5W42–35 | 46.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/29 | Iowa State vs Memphis | -10.5L26–36 | 58.0 | L26–36 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
TCU Edge
TCU +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
TCU Edge
TCU +34.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
55.9 — 20.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 13
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on TCU with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
15–3 (83%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kendal Briles
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Gillespie
Yr 1
#1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
47–42 (53%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Nathan Scheelhaase
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓