Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UNLV,
while Game Control favors Kansas.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Kansas wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas -8.0
O/U 64.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2023 Schedule
Kansas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Kansas vs Missouri State | -32.5W48–17 | 60.5 | W48–17 | O | N |
| Fri 9/8 | Kansas vs Illinois | -3.5W34–23 | 57.5 | W34–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Kansas at Nevada | -28.5W31–24 | 58.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Kansas vs BYU | -9.0W38–27 | 55.5 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Kansas at Texas | +15.5L14–40 | 61.0 | L14–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Kansas vs UCF | +2.0W51–22 | 65.0 | W51–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Kansas at Oklahoma State | -3.0L32–39 | 54.0 | L32–39 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Kansas vs Oklahoma | +7.0W38–33 | 66.5 | W38–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Kansas at Iowa State | +2.5W28–21 | 53.0 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Kansas vs Texas Tech | -3.5L13–16 | 61.5 | L13–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kansas vs Kansas State | +7.0L27–31 | 60.5 | L27–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Kansas at Cincinnati | -7.5W49–16 | 59.5 | W49–16 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Kansas vs UNLV | -8.0W49–36 | 64.5 | W49–36 | O | Y |
UNLV 2023 Schedule
UNLV's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | UNLV vs Bryant | -16.5W44–14 | 66.0 | W44–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | UNLV at Michigan | +38.0L7–35 | 57.5 | L7–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | UNLV vs Vanderbilt | +4.5W40–37 | 56.5 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | UNLV at UTEP | +1.0W45–28 | 49.5 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | UNLV vs Hawai'i | -10.5W44–20 | 58.5 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | UNLV at Nevada | -7.5W45–27 | 51.5 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | UNLV vs Colorado State | -6.5W25–23 | 60.0 | W25–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | UNLV at Fresno State | +10.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | UNLV at New Mexico | -10.0W56–14 | 61.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/10 | UNLV vs Wyoming | -2.5W34–14 | 48.5 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | UNLV at Air Force | +2.5W31–27 | 46.5 | W31–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | UNLV vs San José State | -3.5L31–37 | 58.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 12/2 | UNLV vs Boise State | +2.5L20–44 | 58.0 | L20–44 | O | N |
| Tue 12/26 | UNLV vs Kansas | +8.0L36–49 | 64.5 | L36–49 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +0.21
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kansas Edge
Kansas +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas
2 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas
15.1 — 68.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas won by 13
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
11–17 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brian Borland
Yr 3
#1
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brennan Marion
Yr 1
#1
DC
Michael Scherer
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓