Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Lawrence, KS
·
Turf
·
50,071 cap
Missouri State✈ 162 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Missouri State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas -32.5
O/U 60.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Missouri State 2023 Schedule
Missouri State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Missouri State at Kansas | +32.5L17–48 | 60.5 | L17–48 | O | Y |
Kansas 2023 Schedule
Kansas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Kansas vs Missouri State | -32.5W48–17 | 60.5 | W48–17 | O | N |
| Fri 9/8 | Kansas vs Illinois | -3.5W34–23 | 57.5 | W34–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Kansas at Nevada | -28.5W31–24 | 58.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Kansas vs BYU | -9.0W38–27 | 55.5 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Kansas at Texas | +15.5L14–40 | 61.0 | L14–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Kansas vs UCF | +2.0W51–22 | 65.0 | W51–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Kansas at Oklahoma State | -3.0L32–39 | 54.0 | L32–39 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Kansas vs Oklahoma | +7.0W38–33 | 66.5 | W38–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Kansas at Iowa State | +2.5W28–21 | 53.0 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Kansas vs Texas Tech | -3.5L13–16 | 61.5 | L13–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kansas vs Kansas State | +7.0L27–31 | 60.5 | L27–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Kansas at Cincinnati | -7.5W49–16 | 59.5 | W49–16 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/26 | Kansas vs UNLV | -8.0W49–36 | 64.5 | W49–36 | O | Y |
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Missouri State Edge
Missouri State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri State Edge
Missouri State +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓