Memphis at Iowa State Week 1 College Football Matchup Memphis at Iowa State Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Dec 29 2023 · Postseason · 🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Memphis, TN · Turf · 62,380 cap
Away
36 26
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Memphis
27
MEM +10.5
Iowa State
32
P&R Line Iowa State -5.5
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa State -10.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Memphis has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Memphis entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Memphis wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Memphis wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -10.5
O/U 58.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Memphis 2nd straight Road Game
Memphis 2023 Schedule
Memphis's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Memphis vs Bethune-Cookman-49.0W56–1459.5W56–14ON
Sat 9/9Memphis at Arkansas State-21.0W37–357.0W37–3UY
Thu 9/14Memphis vs Navy-12.5W28–2447.0W28–24ON
Sat 9/23Memphis vs Missouri+6.5L27–3452.0L27–34ON
Sat 9/30Memphis vs Boise State-3.0W35–3258.0W35–32ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/13Memphis vs Tulane+4.5L21–3154.5L21–31UN
Sat 10/21Memphis at UAB-7.5W45–2161.5W45–21OY
Sat 10/28Memphis at North Texas-6.5W45–4270.0W45–42ON
Sat 11/4Memphis vs South Florida-13.5W59–5068.5W59–50ON
Sat 11/11Memphis at Charlotte-9.5W44–3851.5W44–38ON
Sat 11/18Memphis vs SMU+9.5L34–3864.5L34–38OY
Fri 11/24Memphis at Temple-13.5W45–2163.5W45–21OY
Fri 12/29Memphis at Iowa State+10.5W36–2658.0W36–26OY
Iowa State 2023 Schedule
Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-7.0W30–940.5W30–9UY
Sat 9/9Iowa State vs Iowa+3.5L13–2035.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/16Iowa State at Ohio-1.5L7–1042.0L7–10UN
Sat 9/23Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-3.5W34–2736.0W34–27OY
Sat 9/30Iowa State at Oklahoma+19.5L20–5048.5L20–50ON
Sat 10/7Iowa State vs TCU+6.5W27–1452.5W27–14UY
Sat 10/14Iowa State at Cincinnati+4.0W30–1042.5W30–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Iowa State at Baylor-3.0W30–1847.0W30–18OY
Sat 11/4Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L21–2853.0L21–28UN
Sat 11/11Iowa State at BYU-7.5W45–1340.5W45–13OY
Sat 11/18Iowa State vs Texas+7.5L16–2643.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/25Iowa State at Kansas State+9.5W42–3546.0W42–35OY
Fri 12/29Iowa State vs Memphis-10.5L26–3658.0L26–36ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Memphis #18
+0.430
Iowa State #57
+0.411
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #22
+0.702
Iowa State #25
+0.697
Memphis Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Memphis #66
0.162
Iowa State #76
0.159
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Memphis Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #16
+7.946
Iowa State #83
+7.843
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Memphis #23
+0.858
Iowa State #119
+0.805
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Memphis #18
68.8
Iowa State #48
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Memphis Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Overall Power Rating
Memphis
3.1
Iowa State
3.1
Offense Rating
Memphis
16.9
Iowa State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Memphis
13.7
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Memphis Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Memphis #11
1.27
Iowa State #36
1.09
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #37
0.91
Iowa State #40
0.64
Memphis +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Memphis #1
52.5
Iowa State #1
45.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #51
29.5
Iowa State #54
38.5
Memphis +7.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
3 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
91.3 — 6.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Memphis won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Memphis. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
24–16 (60%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 2 #1
DC Matt Barnes Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
47–42 (53%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Nathan Scheelhaase Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself