Kansas State at Kansas Week 12 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Kansas Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 19 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
31 27
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
31
Kansas
29
P&R Line Kansas State -2.5
P&R Total O/U 60
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Kansas State -7.0 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -7.0
O/U 60.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kansas 2nd straight Home Game
Kansas State 2023 Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.5W45–056.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/9Kansas State vs Troy-15.0W42–1350.0W42–13OY
Sat 9/16Kansas State at Missouri-3.5L27–3048.0L27–30ON
Sat 9/23Kansas State vs UCF-6.0W44–3153.5W44–31OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.5L21–2953.5L21–29UN
Sat 10/14Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.0W38–2157.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/21Kansas State vs TCU-5.5W41–360.0W41–3UY
Sat 10/28Kansas State vs Houston-17.5W41–061.0W41–0UY
Sat 11/4Kansas State at Texas+4.0L30–3349.5L30–33OY
Sat 11/11Kansas State vs Baylor-20.5W59–2555.5W59–25OY
Sat 11/18Kansas State at Kansas-7.0W31–2760.5W31–27UN
Sat 11/25Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.5L35–4246.0L35–42ON
Thu 12/28Kansas State vs NC State-3.0W28–1948.5W28–19UY
Kansas 2023 Schedule
Kansas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Kansas vs Missouri State-32.5W48–1760.5W48–17ON
Fri 9/8Kansas vs Illinois-3.5W34–2357.5W34–23UY
Sat 9/16Kansas at Nevada-28.5W31–2458.0W31–24UN
Sat 9/23Kansas vs BYU-9.0W38–2755.5W38–27OY
Sat 9/30Kansas at Texas+15.5L14–4061.0L14–40UN
Sat 10/7Kansas vs UCF+2.0W51–2265.0W51–22OY
Sat 10/14Kansas at Oklahoma State-3.0L32–3954.0L32–39ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Kansas vs Oklahoma+7.0W38–3366.5W38–33OY
Sat 11/4Kansas at Iowa State+2.5W28–2153.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/11Kansas vs Texas Tech-3.5L13–1661.5L13–16UN
Sat 11/18Kansas vs Kansas State+7.0L27–3160.5L27–31UY
Sat 11/25Kansas at Cincinnati-7.5W49–1659.5W49–16OY
Tue 12/26Kansas vs UNLV-8.0W49–3664.5W49–36OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #34
+0.474
Kansas #5
+0.545
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #60
+0.540
Kansas #1
+0.887
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #42
0.174
Kansas #95
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #1
+9.258
Kansas #27
+7.413
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #18
+0.922
Kansas #13
+0.859
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #40
69.6
Kansas #99
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #20
1.78
Kansas #21
1.11
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #46
0.78
Kansas #51
1.00
Kansas State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
62.4
Kansas #1
54.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #20
23.9
Kansas #29
29.8
Kansas State +7.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
36.1 — 39.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
32–21 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
11–17 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself