Sat, Oct 28 2023
·
Week 9
·
🏟 McLane Stadium
Waco, TX
·
Turf
·
45,140 cap
Iowa State✈ 747 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -3
O/U 47.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Iowa State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2023 Schedule
Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Iowa State vs Northern Iowa | -7.0W30–9 | 40.5 | W30–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Iowa State vs Iowa | +3.5L13–20 | 35.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Iowa State at Ohio | -1.5L7–10 | 42.0 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma State | -3.5W34–27 | 36.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Iowa State at Oklahoma | +19.5L20–50 | 48.5 | L20–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Iowa State vs TCU | +6.5W27–14 | 52.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Iowa State at Cincinnati | +4.0W30–10 | 42.5 | W30–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Iowa State at Baylor | -3.0W30–18 | 47.0 | W30–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -2.5L21–28 | 53.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Iowa State at BYU | -7.5W45–13 | 40.5 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Iowa State vs Texas | +7.5L16–26 | 43.5 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Iowa State at Kansas State | +9.5W42–35 | 46.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/29 | Iowa State vs Memphis | -10.5L26–36 | 58.0 | L26–36 | O | N |
Baylor 2023 Schedule
Baylor's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Baylor vs Texas State | -26.5L31–42 | 58.5 | L31–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Baylor vs Utah | +7.0L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Baylor vs Long Island University | -44.0W30–7 | 54.0 | W30–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Baylor vs Texas | +17.5L6–38 | 49.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Baylor at UCF | +8.0W36–35 | 56.5 | W36–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Baylor vs Texas Tech | +2.5L14–39 | 59.5 | L14–39 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Baylor at Cincinnati | +2.5W32–29 | 51.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Baylor vs Iowa State | +3.0L18–30 | 47.0 | L18–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Baylor vs Houston | -3.0L24–25 | 58.5 | L24–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Baylor at Kansas State | +20.5L25–59 | 55.5 | L25–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Baylor at TCU | +13.0L17–42 | 62.0 | L17–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Baylor vs West Virginia | +6.5L31–34 | 53.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +11.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
6.7 — 89.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 12
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Iowa State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
47–42 (53%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Nathan Scheelhaase
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 3
#1
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
21–18 (54%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Jeff Grimes
Yr 3
#1
DC
Matt Powledge
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓