Kansas at Oklahoma State Week 7 College Football Matchup Kansas at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 14 2023 · Week 7 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
Kansas✈ 219 miSame TZ
Away
32 39
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
30
Oklahoma State
26
P&R Line Kansas -3.5
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas -3 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Kansas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas -3
O/U 54.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Oklahoma State 2nd straight Home Game
Kansas 2023 Schedule
Kansas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Kansas vs Missouri State-32.5W48–1760.5W48–17ON
Fri 9/8Kansas vs Illinois-3.5W34–2357.5W34–23UY
Sat 9/16Kansas at Nevada-28.5W31–2458.0W31–24UN
Sat 9/23Kansas vs BYU-9.0W38–2755.5W38–27OY
Sat 9/30Kansas at Texas+15.5L14–4061.0L14–40UN
Sat 10/7Kansas vs UCF+2.0W51–2265.0W51–22OY
Sat 10/14Kansas at Oklahoma State-3.0L32–3954.0L32–39ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Kansas vs Oklahoma+7.0W38–3366.5W38–33OY
Sat 11/4Kansas at Iowa State+2.5W28–2153.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/11Kansas vs Texas Tech-3.5L13–1661.5L13–16UN
Sat 11/18Kansas vs Kansas State+7.0L27–3160.5L27–31UY
Sat 11/25Kansas at Cincinnati-7.5W49–1659.5W49–16OY
Tue 12/26Kansas vs UNLV-8.0W49–3664.5W49–36OY
Oklahoma State 2023 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas-25.5W27–1359.5W27–13UN
Sat 9/9Oklahoma State at Arizona State-2.5W27–1553.5W27–15UY
Sat 9/16Oklahoma State vs South Alabama-7.0L7–3349.5L7–33UN
Sat 9/23Oklahoma State at Iowa State+3.5L27–3436.0L27–34ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+11.5W29–2153.5W29–21UY
Sat 10/14Oklahoma State vs Kansas+3.0W39–3254.0W39–32OY
Sat 10/21Oklahoma State at West Virginia+3.0W48–3448.0W48–34OY
Sat 10/28Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati-7.0W45–1353.0W45–13OY
Sat 11/4Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma+6.0W27–2461.5W27–24UY
Sat 11/11Oklahoma State at UCF-2.5L3–4563.5L3–45UN
Sat 11/18Oklahoma State at Houston-6.5W43–3056.5W43–30OY
Sat 11/25Oklahoma State vs BYU-15.5W40–3455.5W40–34ON
Sat 12/2Oklahoma State vs Texas+14.0L21–4955.0L21–49ON
Wed 12/27Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M-4.0W31–2356.0W31–23UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas #5
+0.660
Oklahoma State #69
+0.389
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #1
+1.071
Oklahoma State #71
+0.505
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas #95
0.150
Oklahoma State #98
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #27
+8.645
Oklahoma State #63
+8.071
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas #13
+0.882
Oklahoma State #53
+0.882
Even
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas #99
71.6
Oklahoma State #44
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Oklahoma State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oklahoma State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
Oklahoma State
4.8
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
Oklahoma State
14.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #21
1.20
Oklahoma State #39
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #51
0.80
Oklahoma State #50
1.00
Kansas +0.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
61.0
Oklahoma State #1
48.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #29
22.2
Oklahoma State #78
34.5
Kansas +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oklahoma State
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas
37.6 — 40.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oklahoma State won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
11–17 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
158–76 (68%) · Yr 19 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Jim Bob Clements Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself