Sam Houston at New Mexico State Week 7 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at New Mexico State Matchup - Week 7
Thu, Oct 12 2023 · Week 7 · 🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium Las Cruces, NM · Turf · 30,343 cap
Sam Houston✈ 668 mi-1 hr TZ
13 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
15
New Mexico State
30
P&R Line New Mexico State -14.5
P&R Total O/U 45
Confidence 90 High
Vegas New Mexico State -4.5 · O/U 43.0
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor New Mexico State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
New Mexico State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
New Mexico State -4.5
O/U 43.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → New Mexico State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 New Mexico State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Sam Houston 2nd straight Road Game
Sam Houston 2023 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Sam Houston at BYU+19.0L0–1446.5L0–14UY
Sat 9/9Sam Houston vs Air Force+13.5L3–1336.5L3–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Sam Houston at Houston+11.5L7–3837.0L7–38ON
Thu 9/28Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+6.5L28–3536.5L28–35ON
Thu 10/5Sam Houston at Liberty+21.0L16–2146.5L16–21UY
Wed 10/11Sam Houston at New Mexico State+4.5L13–2743.0L13–27UN
Wed 10/18Sam Houston vs Florida International-6.0L27–3342.0L27–33ON
Wed 10/25Sam Houston vs UTEP-4.0L34–3738.5L34–37ON
Sat 11/4Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State-16.5W24–2141.5W24–21ON
Sat 11/11Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+8.5W42–2749.5W42–27OY
Sat 11/18Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+12.5L23–2852.0L23–28UY
Sat 11/25Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee+3.5W23–2049.5W23–20UY
New Mexico State 2023 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.0L30–4145.5L30–41ON
Sat 9/2New Mexico State vs Western Illinois-21.0W58–2155.0W58–21OY
Sat 9/9New Mexico State at Liberty+9.0L17–3354.5L17–33UN
Sat 9/16New Mexico State at New Mexico+2.5W27–1752.0W27–17UY
Sat 9/23New Mexico State at Hawai'i+4.0L17–2054.5L17–20UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/4New Mexico State vs Florida International-6.5W34–1749.5W34–17OY
Wed 10/11New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-4.5W27–1343.0W27–13UY
Wed 10/18New Mexico State at UTEP-3.0W28–748.5W28–7UY
Tue 10/24New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+3.0W27–2455.0W27–24UY
Sat 11/4New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.0W13–755.5W13–7UY
Sat 11/11New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+4.5W38–2955.5W38–29OY
Sat 11/18New Mexico State at Auburn+25.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Sat 11/25New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State-2.0W20–1748.5W20–17UY
Fri 12/1New Mexico State at Liberty+10.5L35–4954.0L35–49ON
Sat 12/16New Mexico State vs Fresno State-3.0L10–3752.5L10–37UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
New Mexico State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ New Mexico State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ New Mexico State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #115
+0.313
New Mexico State #29
+0.464
New Mexico State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #81
+0.486
New Mexico State #52
+0.561
New Mexico State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #117
0.138
New Mexico State #83
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
New Mexico State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #97
+7.193
New Mexico State #59
+7.745
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #118
+0.814
New Mexico State #17
+0.886
New Mexico State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #109
72.0
New Mexico State #102
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.2
New Mexico State
-14.9
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
New Mexico State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.8
New Mexico State
21.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #94
0.40
New Mexico State #45
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #27
0.20
New Mexico State #90
1.00
New Mexico State +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
25.7
New Mexico State #1
52.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #95
52.1
New Mexico State #25
27.7
New Mexico State +26.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico State
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
New Mexico State
74.8 — 10.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
New Mexico State won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
85–29 (75%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton Carlin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
9–8 (53%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Dreiling Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself