Sat, Nov 11 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium
Ruston, LA
·
Turf
·
28,019 cap
Sam Houston✈ 211 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Sam Houston,
while Game Control favors Louisiana Tech.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Sam Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Louisiana Tech wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -8.5
O/U 49.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Sam Houston 2023 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Sam Houston at BYU | +19.0L0–14 | 46.5 | L0–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Sam Houston vs Air Force | +13.5L3–13 | 36.5 | L3–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Sam Houston at Houston | +11.5L7–38 | 37.0 | L7–38 | O | N |
| Thu 9/28 | Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State | +6.5L28–35 | 36.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Thu 10/5 | Sam Houston at Liberty | +21.0L16–21 | 46.5 | L16–21 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/11 | Sam Houston at New Mexico State | +4.5L13–27 | 43.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Wed 10/18 | Sam Houston vs Florida International | -6.0L27–33 | 42.0 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Wed 10/25 | Sam Houston vs UTEP | -4.0L34–37 | 38.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State | -16.5W24–21 | 41.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech | +8.5W42–27 | 49.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Sam Houston at Western Kentucky | +12.5L23–28 | 52.0 | L23–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee | +3.5W23–20 | 49.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
Louisiana Tech 2023 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Louisiana Tech vs Florida International | -12.0W22–17 | 57.5 | W22–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/2 | Louisiana Tech at SMU | +21.0L14–38 | 66.0 | L14–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Louisiana Tech vs Northwestern State | -23.0W51–21 | 58.5 | W51–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Louisiana Tech vs North Texas | -4.5L37–40 | 66.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Louisiana Tech at Nebraska | +20.5L14–28 | 44.5 | L14–28 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/29 | Louisiana Tech at UTEP | -2.0W24–10 | 49.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/5 | Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky | +6.0L28–35 | 59.0 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Tue 10/10 | Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee | +3.0L23–31 | 53.5 | L23–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/24 | Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State | -3.0L24–27 | 55.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Louisiana Tech at Liberty | +16.5L30–56 | 58.0 | L30–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston | -8.5L27–42 | 49.5 | L27–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State | +8.5L17–56 | 53.5 | L17–56 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Sam Houston Edge
Sam Houston +0.06
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +3.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana Tech
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Sam Houston
8.6 — 84.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Sam Houston won by 15
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
85–29 (75%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton Carlin
Yr 1
#1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
5–11 (31%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jake Brown
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scott Power
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓