Thu, Oct 26 2023
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Bowers Stadium
Huntsville, TX
·
Turf
·
14,000 cap
UTEP✈ 651 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Sam Houston,
while Game Control favors UTEP.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Sam Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
UTEP wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Sam Houston State -4
O/U 38.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UTEP
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UTEP 2023 Schedule
UTEP's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | UTEP at Jacksonville State | -1.5L14–17 | 54.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/2 | UTEP vs Incarnate Word | -7.5W28–14 | 57.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | UTEP at Northwestern | +1.0L7–38 | 40.0 | L7–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | UTEP at Arizona | +18.0L10–31 | 57.0 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | UTEP vs UNLV | -1.0L28–45 | 49.5 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Fri 9/29 | UTEP vs Louisiana Tech | +2.0L10–24 | 49.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/11 | UTEP at Florida International | -1.5W27–14 | 44.0 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/18 | UTEP vs New Mexico State | +3.0L7–28 | 48.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Wed 10/25 | UTEP at Sam Houston | +4.0W37–34 | 38.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | UTEP vs Western Kentucky | +9.5L13–21 | 54.5 | L13–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/18 | UTEP at Middle Tennessee | +8.5L30–34 | 48.5 | L30–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | UTEP vs Liberty | +18.0L28–42 | 54.5 | L28–42 | O | Y |
Sam Houston 2023 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Sam Houston at BYU | +19.0L0–14 | 46.5 | L0–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Sam Houston vs Air Force | +13.5L3–13 | 36.5 | L3–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Sam Houston at Houston | +11.5L7–38 | 37.0 | L7–38 | O | N |
| Thu 9/28 | Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State | +6.5L28–35 | 36.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Thu 10/5 | Sam Houston at Liberty | +21.0L16–21 | 46.5 | L16–21 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/11 | Sam Houston at New Mexico State | +4.5L13–27 | 43.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Wed 10/18 | Sam Houston vs Florida International | -6.0L27–33 | 42.0 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Wed 10/25 | Sam Houston vs UTEP | -4.0L34–37 | 38.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State | -16.5W24–21 | 41.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech | +8.5W42–27 | 49.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Sam Houston at Western Kentucky | +12.5L23–28 | 52.0 | L23–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee | +3.5W23–20 | 49.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTEP
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Sam Houston Edge
Sam Houston +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UTEP Edge
UTEP +1.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UTEP
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Sam Houston
51.5 — 19.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UTEP won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UTEP
Dana Dimel #1
18–43 (30%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Scotty Ohara
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bradley Dale Peveto
Yr 3
#1
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
85–29 (75%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton Carlin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓