Jacksonville State at Sam Houston Week 5 College Football Matchup Jacksonville State at Sam Houston Matchup - Week 5
Fri, Sep 29 2023 · Week 5 · 🏟 Bowers Stadium Huntsville, TX · Turf · 14,000 cap
Jacksonville State✈ 609 miSame TZ
35 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Jacksonville State
25
Sam Houston
18
P&R Line Jacksonville State -7.5
P&R Total O/U 42.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Jacksonville State -6.5 · O/U 36.5
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -6.5
O/U 36.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Jacksonville State 2023 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Jacksonville State vs UTEP+1.5W17–1454.5W17–14UY
Sat 9/2Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State-20.0W49–355.0W49–3UY
Sat 9/9Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina+13.5L16–3061.0L16–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W21–051.0W21–0UY
Thu 9/28Jacksonville State at Sam Houston-6.5W35–2836.5W35–28OY
Wed 10/4Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee+2.5W45–3052.0W45–30OY
Tue 10/10Jacksonville State vs Liberty+7.0L13–3159.5L13–31UN
Tue 10/17Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+7.5W20–1760.5W20–17UY
Wed 10/25Jacksonville State at Florida International-9.0W41–1648.0W41–16OY
Sat 11/4Jacksonville State at South Carolina+15.5L28–3855.0L28–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/18Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech-8.5W56–1753.5W56–17OY
Sat 11/25Jacksonville State at New Mexico State+2.0L17–2048.5L17–20UN
Sat 12/16Jacksonville State vs Louisiana-3.5W34–3158.5W34–31ON
Sam Houston 2023 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Sam Houston at BYU+19.0L0–1446.5L0–14UY
Sat 9/9Sam Houston vs Air Force+13.5L3–1336.5L3–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Sam Houston at Houston+11.5L7–3837.0L7–38ON
Thu 9/28Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+6.5L28–3536.5L28–35ON
Thu 10/5Sam Houston at Liberty+21.0L16–2146.5L16–21UY
Wed 10/11Sam Houston at New Mexico State+4.5L13–2743.0L13–27UN
Wed 10/18Sam Houston vs Florida International-6.0L27–3342.0L27–33ON
Wed 10/25Sam Houston vs UTEP-4.0L34–3738.5L34–37ON
Sat 11/4Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State-16.5W24–2141.5W24–21ON
Sat 11/11Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+8.5W42–2749.5W42–27OY
Sat 11/18Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+12.5L23–2852.0L23–28UY
Sat 11/25Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee+3.5W23–2049.5W23–20UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Jacksonville State #103
+0.312
Sam Houston #115
+0.171
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #119
+0.351
Sam Houston #81
+0.509
Sam Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #37
0.177
Sam Houston #117
0.138
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #79
+7.542
Sam Houston #97
+6.799
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #65
+0.836
Sam Houston #118
+0.728
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #36
69.4
Sam Houston #109
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Jacksonville State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Sam Houston
-19.2
Offense Rating
Jacksonville State
14.4
Sam Houston
4.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Jacksonville State
17.1
Sam Houston
23.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Jacksonville State #50
1.33
Sam Houston #94
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #28
0.33
Sam Houston #27
0.33
Jacksonville State +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Jacksonville State #1
60.7
Sam Houston #1
13.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #55
22.2
Sam Houston #95
64.7
Jacksonville State +47.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Sam Houston
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Sam Houston
65.7 — 14.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Jacksonville State won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
11–3 (79%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
85–29 (75%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton Carlin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself