Thu, Oct 20 2022
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Virginia✈ 441 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia Tech,
while Game Control favors Virginia.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Virginia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -3.5
O/U 48.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Virginia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2022 Schedule
Virginia's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Virginia vs Richmond | -22.5W34–17 | 62.0 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Virginia at Illinois | +4.0L3–24 | 55.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Virginia vs Old Dominion | -8.0W16–14 | 52.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Virginia at Syracuse | +9.5L20–22 | 53.5 | L20–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Virginia at Duke | +2.0L17–38 | 55.0 | L17–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Virginia vs Louisville | -1.5L17–34 | 47.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/20 | Virginia at Georgia Tech | +3.5W16–9 | 48.0 | W16–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Virginia vs Miami | +3.0L12–14 | 48.5 | L12–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Virginia vs North Carolina | +7.0L28–31 | 61.5 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Virginia vs Pittsburgh | +5.5L7–37 | 41.5 | L7–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -2.0 | 44.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +1.5 | 40.0 | — | — | — |
Georgia Tech 2022 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/5 | Georgia Tech vs Clemson | +24.5L10–41 | 51.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia Tech vs Western Carolina | -24.5W35–17 | 65.5 | W35–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia Tech vs Ole Miss | +17.0L0–42 | 63.0 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Georgia Tech at UCF | +21.0L10–27 | 56.5 | L10–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh | +21.5W26–21 | 47.0 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia Tech vs Duke | +3.5W23–20 | 54.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/20 | Georgia Tech vs Virginia | -3.5L9–16 | 48.0 | L9–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Georgia Tech at Florida State | +23.5L16–41 | 48.0 | L16–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | +4.0W28–27 | 40.5 | W28–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Georgia Tech vs Miami | -2.0L14–35 | 43.5 | L14–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia Tech at North Carolina | +21.5W21–17 | 63.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia Tech at Georgia | +36.5L14–37 | 49.0 | L14–37 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Tech Edge
Georgia Tech +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +7.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 1
#1
Georgia Tech
Geoff Collins #1
9–24 (27%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Chip Long
Yr 1
#1
DC
Andrew Thacker
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓