Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 294 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia -2.0
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2022 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Coastal Carolina vs Army | -1.5W38–28 | 54.0 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Coastal Carolina vs Gardner-Webb | -32.5W31–27 | 66.5 | W31–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Coastal Carolina vs Buffalo | -12.0W38–26 | 60.0 | W38–26 | O | N |
| Thu 9/22 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia State | -2.5W41–24 | 63.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern | -10.0W34–30 | 69.5 | W34–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Coastal Carolina at UL Monroe | -12.5W28–21 | 58.0 | W28–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion | -11.0L21–49 | 58.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Coastal Carolina at Marshall | +2.5W24–13 | 54.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/3 | Coastal Carolina vs App State | +3.0W35–28 | 65.5 | W35–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Coastal Carolina vs Southern Miss | -4.5W26–23 | 48.0 | W26–23 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Coastal Carolina at Virginia | +2.0 | 44.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Coastal Carolina at James Madison | +15.5L7–47 | 53.0 | L7–47 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | Coastal Carolina at Troy | +7.0L26–45 | 49.0 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina | +7.0L29–53 | 67.5 | L29–53 | O | N |
Virginia 2022 Schedule
Virginia's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Virginia vs Richmond | -22.5W34–17 | 62.0 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Virginia at Illinois | +4.0L3–24 | 55.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Virginia vs Old Dominion | -8.0W16–14 | 52.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Virginia at Syracuse | +9.5L20–22 | 53.5 | L20–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Virginia at Duke | +2.0L17–38 | 55.0 | L17–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Virginia vs Louisville | -1.5L17–34 | 47.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/20 | Virginia at Georgia Tech | +3.5W16–9 | 48.0 | W16–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Virginia vs Miami | +3.0L12–14 | 48.5 | L12–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Virginia vs North Carolina | +7.0L28–31 | 61.5 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Virginia vs Pittsburgh | +5.5L7–37 | 41.5 | L7–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -2.0 | 44.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +1.5 | 40.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +0.46
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +32.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
30–19 (61%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Willy Korn
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chad Staggs
Yr 2
#1
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

