Coastal Carolina at Virginia Week 12 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at Virginia Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 19 2022 · Week 12 · 🏟 Scott Stadium Charlottesville, VA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 294 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available. Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance. Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
27
CCU +2
Virginia
20
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -7
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia -2.0 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia -2.0
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Virginia 4th straight Home Game
Coastal Carolina 2022 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Coastal Carolina vs Army-1.5W38–2854.0W38–28OY
Sat 9/10Coastal Carolina vs Gardner-Webb-32.5W31–2766.5W31–27UN
Sat 9/17Coastal Carolina vs Buffalo-12.0W38–2660.0W38–26ON
Thu 9/22Coastal Carolina at Georgia State-2.5W41–2463.5W41–24OY
Sat 10/1Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-10.0W34–3069.5W34–30UN
Sat 10/8Coastal Carolina at UL Monroe-12.5W28–2158.0W28–21UN
Sat 10/15Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-11.0L21–4958.5L21–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Coastal Carolina at Marshall+2.5W24–1354.0W24–13UY
Thu 11/3Coastal Carolina vs App State+3.0W35–2865.5W35–28UY
Sat 11/12Coastal Carolina vs Southern Miss-4.5W26–2348.0W26–23ON
Sat 11/19Coastal Carolina at Virginia+2.044.5
Sat 11/26Coastal Carolina at James Madison+15.5L7–4753.0L7–47ON
Sat 12/3Coastal Carolina at Troy+7.0L26–4549.0L26–45ON
Tue 12/27Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina+7.0L29–5367.5L29–53ON
Virginia 2022 Schedule
Virginia's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Virginia vs Richmond-22.5W34–1762.0W34–17UN
Sat 9/10Virginia at Illinois+4.0L3–2455.0L3–24UN
Sat 9/17Virginia vs Old Dominion-8.0W16–1452.5W16–14UN
Fri 9/23Virginia at Syracuse+9.5L20–2253.5L20–22UY
Sat 10/1Virginia at Duke+2.0L17–3855.0L17–38UN
Sat 10/8Virginia vs Louisville-1.5L17–3447.5L17–34ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/20Virginia at Georgia Tech+3.5W16–948.0W16–9UY
Sat 10/29Virginia vs Miami+3.0L12–1448.5L12–14UY
Sat 11/5Virginia vs North Carolina+7.0L28–3161.5L28–31UY
Sat 11/12Virginia vs Pittsburgh+5.5L7–3741.5L7–37ON
Sat 11/19Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-2.044.5
Sat 11/26Virginia at Virginia Tech+1.540.0
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season (prior year)
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina
+0.784
Virginia
+0.500
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina
+1.038
Virginia
+0.610
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina
0.189
Virginia
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Coastal Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina
+8.747
Virginia
+8.365
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina
+1.005
Virginia
+0.908
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina
70.7
Virginia
74.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Virginia
7.0
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Virginia
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Virginia
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #22
1.92
Virginia #55
1.46
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #19
0.50
Virginia #124
1.82
Coastal Carolina +0.46
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #11
77.4
Virginia #67
45.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #2
11.1
Virginia #74
43.3
Coastal Carolina +32.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
30–19 (61%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Willy Korn Yr 2 #1
DC Chad Staggs Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 1 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself