Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Virginia wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Virginia -22.5
O/U 62.0
Bovada
Richmond 2022 Schedule
Richmond's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Richmond at Virginia | +22.5L17–34 | 62.0 | L17–34 | U | Y |
Virginia 2022 Schedule
Virginia's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Virginia vs Richmond | -22.5W34–17 | 62.0 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Virginia at Illinois | +4.0L3–24 | 55.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Virginia vs Old Dominion | -8.0W16–14 | 52.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Virginia at Syracuse | +9.5L20–22 | 53.5 | L20–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Virginia at Duke | +2.0L17–38 | 55.0 | L17–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Virginia vs Louisville | -1.5L17–34 | 47.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/20 | Virginia at Georgia Tech | +3.5W16–9 | 48.0 | W16–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Virginia vs Miami | +3.0L12–14 | 48.5 | L12–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Virginia vs North Carolina | +7.0L28–31 | 61.5 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Virginia vs Pittsburgh | +5.5L7–37 | 41.5 | L7–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -2.0 | 44.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +1.5 | 40.0 | — | — | — |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Richmond Edge
Richmond +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +43.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓