Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Lane Stadium
Blacksburg, VA
·
Turf
·
66,233 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 343 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Middle Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Middle Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Middle Tennessee wins
Strong
Game Control
49.4%
Middle Tennessee wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -20
O/U 55.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Middle Tennessee
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Middle Tennessee 2021 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth | -8.5W50–15 | 58.5 | W50–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech | +20.0L14–35 | 55.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Middle Tennessee at UTSA | +11.5L13–27 | 60.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Middle Tennessee at Charlotte | +2.5L39–42 | 55.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Middle Tennessee vs Marshall | +11.0W34–28 | 66.0 | W34–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Middle Tennessee at Liberty | +20.0L13–41 | 59.0 | L13–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/22 | Middle Tennessee at UConn | -14.0W44–13 | 54.0 | W44–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss | -12.5W35–10 | 47.0 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | +17.5L21–48 | 66.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | -10.5W50–10 | 54.0 | W50–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion | -3.0L17–24 | 48.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic | +3.5W27–17 | 49.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Middle Tennessee vs Toledo | +10.0W31–24 | 50.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
Virginia Tech 2021 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Virginia Tech vs North Carolina | +5.5W17–10 | 63.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia Tech vs Middle Tennessee | -20.0W35–14 | 55.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia Tech at West Virginia | +2.0L21–27 | 49.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Virginia Tech vs Richmond | -29.0W21–10 | 50.0 | W21–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame | -1.0L29–32 | 46.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh | +6.0L7–28 | 55.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia Tech vs Syracuse | -3.5L36–41 | 45.5 | L36–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | +3.0W26–17 | 55.0 | W26–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/5 | Virginia Tech at Boston College | -1.0L3–17 | 51.0 | L3–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia Tech vs Duke | -13.5W48–17 | 50.5 | W48–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia Tech at Miami | +7.0L26–38 | 55.5 | L26–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia Tech at Virginia | +7.0W29–24 | 63.5 | W29–24 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia Tech vs Maryland | +4.0L10–54 | 55.0 | L10–54 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +3.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Virginia Tech
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Virginia Tech
94.3 — 2.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Virginia Tech won by 21
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Middle Tennessee, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Rick Stockstill #1
95–94 (50%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Brent Dearmon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Shafer
Yr 1
#1
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente #1
40–27 (60%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Justin Hamilton
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓