Sat, Oct 9 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Lane Stadium
Blacksburg, VA
·
Turf
·
66,233 cap
Notre Dame✈ 438 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Notre Dame,
while Game Control favors Virginia Tech.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Notre Dame wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Virginia Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -1
O/U 46.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Notre Dame
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Notre Dame 2021 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/5 | Notre Dame at Florida State | -7.0W41–38 | 53.5 | W41–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Notre Dame vs Toledo | -16.5W32–29 | 55.0 | W32–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Notre Dame vs Purdue | -7.5W27–13 | 58.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin | +6.0W41–13 | 43.5 | W41–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Notre Dame vs Cincinnati | +2.5L13–24 | 50.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Notre Dame at Virginia Tech | +1.0W32–29 | 46.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Notre Dame vs USC | -8.0W31–16 | 59.5 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Notre Dame vs North Carolina | -3.5W44–34 | 63.0 | W44–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -21.0W34–6 | 47.5 | W34–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Notre Dame at Virginia | -7.5W28–3 | 62.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech | -18.0W55–0 | 57.5 | W55–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Notre Dame at Stanford | -20.5W45–14 | 53.0 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State | +1.5L35–37 | 45.5 | L35–37 | O | N |
Virginia Tech 2021 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Virginia Tech vs North Carolina | +5.5W17–10 | 63.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia Tech vs Middle Tennessee | -20.0W35–14 | 55.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia Tech at West Virginia | +2.0L21–27 | 49.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Virginia Tech vs Richmond | -29.0W21–10 | 50.0 | W21–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame | -1.0L29–32 | 46.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh | +6.0L7–28 | 55.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia Tech vs Syracuse | -3.5L36–41 | 45.5 | L36–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | +3.0W26–17 | 55.0 | W26–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/5 | Virginia Tech at Boston College | -1.0L3–17 | 51.0 | L3–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia Tech vs Duke | -13.5W48–17 | 50.5 | W48–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia Tech at Miami | +7.0L26–38 | 55.5 | L26–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia Tech at Virginia | +7.0W29–24 | 63.5 | W29–24 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia Tech vs Maryland | +4.0L10–54 | 55.0 | L10–54 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Tech Edge
Virginia Tech +16.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Notre Dame
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Virginia Tech
42.2 — 24.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Notre Dame won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Notre Dame
Brian Kelly #1
84–38 (69%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Tommy Rees
Yr 1
#1
DC
Marcus Freeman
Yr 1
#1
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente #1
40–27 (60%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Justin Hamilton
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓