Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 BB&T Field
Winston-Salem, NC
·
Turf
·
31,500 cap
Florida State✈ 457 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Wake Forest wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -4.5
O/U 63.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida State 2021 Schedule
Florida State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/5 | Florida State vs Notre Dame | +7.0L38–41 | 53.5 | L38–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida State vs Jacksonville State | -27.5L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida State at Wake Forest | +4.5L14–35 | 63.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida State vs Louisville | -1.5L23–31 | 61.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida State vs Syracuse | -5.5W33–30 | 50.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida State at North Carolina | +17.5W35–25 | 64.5 | W35–25 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Florida State vs Massachusetts | -35.0W59–3 | 59.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida State at Clemson | +9.5L20–30 | 47.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida State vs NC State | +3.0L14–28 | 55.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida State vs Miami | +2.5W31–28 | 61.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida State at Boston College | +3.0W26–23 | 55.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida State at Florida | +4.0L21–24 | 58.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
Wake Forest 2021 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Wake Forest vs Old Dominion | -32.5W42–10 | 61.5 | W42–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wake Forest vs Norfolk State | -43.0W41–16 | 58.0 | W41–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wake Forest vs Florida State | -4.5W35–14 | 63.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Wake Forest at Virginia | +3.5W37–17 | 71.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Wake Forest vs Louisville | -7.0W37–34 | 64.5 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Wake Forest at Syracuse | -5.5W40–37 | 59.0 | W40–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Wake Forest at Army | -3.0W70–56 | 53.5 | W70–56 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Wake Forest vs Duke | -16.5W45–7 | 71.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Wake Forest at North Carolina | +2.5L55–58 | 78.0 | L55–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Wake Forest vs NC State | -1.0W45–42 | 65.0 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wake Forest at Clemson | +3.5L27–48 | 57.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Wake Forest at Boston College | -5.5W41–10 | 64.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh | +3.5L21–45 | 72.5 | L21–45 | U | N |
| Fri 12/31 | Wake Forest vs Rutgers | -17.0W38–10 | 63.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +48.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kenny Dillingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 1
#1
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
43–45 (49%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓