Sat, Nov 27 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Gainesville, FL
·
Turf
·
88,548 cap
Florida State✈ 129 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida State,
while Game Control favors Florida.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Florida wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida -4
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida State 2021 Schedule
Florida State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/5 | Florida State vs Notre Dame | +7.0L38–41 | 53.5 | L38–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida State vs Jacksonville State | -27.5L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida State at Wake Forest | +4.5L14–35 | 63.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida State vs Louisville | -1.5L23–31 | 61.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida State vs Syracuse | -5.5W33–30 | 50.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida State at North Carolina | +17.5W35–25 | 64.5 | W35–25 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Florida State vs Massachusetts | -35.0W59–3 | 59.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida State at Clemson | +9.5L20–30 | 47.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida State vs NC State | +3.0L14–28 | 55.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida State vs Miami | +2.5W31–28 | 61.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida State at Boston College | +3.0W26–23 | 55.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida State at Florida | +4.0L21–24 | 58.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
Florida 2021 Schedule
Florida's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -23.5W35–14 | 51.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida at South Florida | -29.0W42–20 | 57.0 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida vs Alabama | +14.0L29–31 | 59.5 | L29–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida vs Tennessee | -19.0W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida at Kentucky | -7.5L13–20 | 56.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -39.0W42–0 | 60.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Florida at LSU | -12.5L42–49 | 61.0 | L42–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.0L7–34 | 50.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida at South Carolina | -20.5L17–40 | 52.0 | L17–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida vs Samford | -36.0W70–52 | 68.5 | W70–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida at Missouri | -9.5L23–24 | 69.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida vs Florida State | -4.0W24–21 | 58.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | Florida vs UCF | -7.0L17–29 | 56.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.19
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +16.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida
78.5 — 9.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kenny Dillingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 1
#1
Florida
Dan Mullen #1
31–10 (76%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dan Mullen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Grantham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓