Sat, Oct 23 2021
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
Massachusetts✈ 1,050 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida State -35
O/U 59.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Massachusetts 2021 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Massachusetts at Pittsburgh | +38.0L7–51 | 56.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Massachusetts vs Boston College | +39.0L28–45 | 57.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | +22.0L28–42 | 56.5 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina | +36.0L3–53 | 66.0 | L3–53 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Massachusetts vs Toledo | +26.5L7–45 | 56.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +3.0W27–13 | 57.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Massachusetts at Florida State | +35.0L3–59 | 59.0 | L3–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Massachusetts at Liberty | +35.5L17–62 | 56.0 | L17–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Massachusetts vs Rhode Island | -2.5L22–35 | 55.5 | L22–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Massachusetts vs Maine | +6.0L10–35 | 58.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Massachusetts at Army | +37.5L17–33 | 56.0 | L17–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Massachusetts at New Mexico State | +7.0L27–44 | 58.5 | L27–44 | O | N |
Florida State 2021 Schedule
Florida State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/5 | Florida State vs Notre Dame | +7.0L38–41 | 53.5 | L38–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida State vs Jacksonville State | -27.5L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida State at Wake Forest | +4.5L14–35 | 63.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida State vs Louisville | -1.5L23–31 | 61.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida State vs Syracuse | -5.5W33–30 | 50.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida State at North Carolina | +17.5W35–25 | 64.5 | W35–25 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Florida State vs Massachusetts | -35.0W59–3 | 59.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida State at Clemson | +9.5L20–30 | 47.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida State vs NC State | +3.0L14–28 | 55.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida State vs Miami | +2.5W31–28 | 61.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida State at Boston College | +3.0W26–23 | 55.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida State at Florida | +4.0L21–24 | 58.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +29.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida State
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida State
93.3 — 1.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida State won by 56
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Walt Bell #1
1–18 (5%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Angelo Mirando
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tommy Restivo
Yr 1
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kenny Dillingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓