Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
App State✈ 229 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
App State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
App State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
App State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
App State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Appalachian State -10.5
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → App State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
App State 2021 Schedule
App State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | App State vs East Carolina | -9.0W33–19 | 55.5 | W33–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | App State at Miami | +7.5L23–25 | 55.0 | L23–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | App State vs Elon | -35.5W44–10 | 52.5 | W44–10 | O | N |
| Thu 9/23 | App State vs Marshall | -7.0W31–30 | 59.0 | W31–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | App State at Georgia State | -10.5W45–16 | 54.5 | W45–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/12 | App State at Louisiana | -4.5L13–41 | 57.5 | L13–41 | U | N |
| Wed 10/20 | App State vs Coastal Carolina | +4.5W30–27 | 61.0 | W30–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | App State vs UL Monroe | -26.5W59–28 | 57.5 | W59–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | App State at Arkansas State | -21.5W48–14 | 67.5 | W48–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | App State vs South Alabama | -21.5W31–7 | 51.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | App State at Troy | -10.0W45–7 | 51.0 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | App State vs Georgia Southern | -24.5W27–3 | 55.0 | W27–3 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | App State at Louisiana | -2.5L16–24 | 52.5 | L16–24 | U | N |
| Sat 12/18 | App State vs Western Kentucky | -3.0L38–59 | 67.0 | L38–59 | O | N |
Georgia State 2021 Schedule
Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia State vs Army | -2.5L10–43 | 50.0 | L10–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia State at North Carolina | +26.0L17–59 | 65.0 | L17–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia State vs Charlotte | -4.5W20–9 | 62.5 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia State at Auburn | +27.5L24–34 | 57.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia State vs App State | +10.5L16–45 | 54.5 | L16–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia State at UL Monroe | -16.0W55–21 | 49.5 | W55–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Georgia State vs Texas State | -10.0W28–16 | 58.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -6.0W21–14 | 55.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/4 | Georgia State at Louisiana | +13.5L17–21 | 53.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +12.5W42–40 | 53.5 | W42–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -15.5W28–20 | 66.0 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia State vs Troy | -6.5W37–10 | 49.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Georgia State vs Ball State | -6.0W51–20 | 52.5 | W51–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ App State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
App State Edge
App State +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +39.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on App State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
App State
Shawn Clark #1
12–4 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Frank Ponce
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dale Jones
Yr 1
#1
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
23–27 (46%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓