Sat, Nov 27 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
Troy✈ 161 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia State,
while Game Control favors Troy.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Troy wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -6.5
O/U 49.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Troy 2021 Schedule
Troy's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Troy vs Southern | -25.0W55–3 | 55.0 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Troy vs Liberty | +3.0L13–21 | 62.5 | L13–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Troy at Southern Miss | -11.0W21–9 | 49.0 | W21–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Troy at UL Monroe | -23.5L16–29 | 49.5 | L16–29 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Troy at South Carolina | +6.5L14–23 | 43.0 | L14–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Troy vs Georgia Southern | -5.5W27–24 | 51.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Troy at Texas State | -7.5W31–28 | 49.0 | W31–28 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/28 | Troy at Coastal Carolina | +17.0L28–35 | 50.0 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Troy vs South Alabama | -3.5W31–24 | 47.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Troy vs Louisiana | +6.5L21–35 | 48.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Troy vs App State | +10.0L7–45 | 51.0 | L7–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Troy at Georgia State | +6.5L10–37 | 49.5 | L10–37 | U | N |
Georgia State 2021 Schedule
Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia State vs Army | -2.5L10–43 | 50.0 | L10–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia State at North Carolina | +26.0L17–59 | 65.0 | L17–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia State vs Charlotte | -4.5W20–9 | 62.5 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia State at Auburn | +27.5L24–34 | 57.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia State vs App State | +10.5L16–45 | 54.5 | L16–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia State at UL Monroe | -16.0W55–21 | 49.5 | W55–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Georgia State vs Texas State | -10.0W28–16 | 58.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -6.0W21–14 | 55.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/4 | Georgia State at Louisiana | +13.5L17–21 | 53.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +12.5W42–40 | 53.5 | W42–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -15.5W28–20 | 66.0 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia State vs Troy | -6.5W37–10 | 49.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Georgia State vs Ball State | -6.0W51–20 | 52.5 | W51–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Troy Edge
Troy +5.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia State
90.3 — 4.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia State won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Troy
Chip Lindsey #1
12–14 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Luke Meadows
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brandon Hall
Yr 1
#1
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
23–27 (46%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓