Sat, Oct 23 2021
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
Texas State✈ 837 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -10
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2021 Schedule
Texas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas State vs Baylor | +13.5L20–29 | 52.5 | L20–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas State at Florida International | +2.0W23–17 | 55.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas State vs Incarnate Word | -10.5L34–42 | 70.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas State at Eastern Michigan | +7.5L21–59 | 62.0 | L21–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Texas State vs South Alabama | +4.0W33–31 | 52.5 | W33–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas State vs Troy | +7.5L28–31 | 49.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Texas State at Georgia State | +10.0L16–28 | 58.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Texas State at Louisiana | +21.0L0–45 | 58.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0W27–19 | 57.5 | W27–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5L30–38 | 52.0 | L30–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas State at Coastal Carolina | +24.5L21–35 | 60.5 | L21–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Texas State at Arkansas State | +2.0W24–22 | 62.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
Georgia State 2021 Schedule
Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia State vs Army | -2.5L10–43 | 50.0 | L10–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia State at North Carolina | +26.0L17–59 | 65.0 | L17–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia State vs Charlotte | -4.5W20–9 | 62.5 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia State at Auburn | +27.5L24–34 | 57.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia State vs App State | +10.5L16–45 | 54.5 | L16–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia State at UL Monroe | -16.0W55–21 | 49.5 | W55–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Georgia State vs Texas State | -10.0W28–16 | 58.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -6.0W21–14 | 55.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/4 | Georgia State at Louisiana | +13.5L17–21 | 53.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +12.5W42–40 | 53.5 | W42–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -15.5W28–20 | 66.0 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia State vs Troy | -6.5W37–10 | 49.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Georgia State vs Ball State | -6.0W51–20 | 52.5 | W51–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +0.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +6.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Georgia State
74.5 — 12.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia State won by 12
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
6–21 (22%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jacob Peeler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Spavital
Yr 1
#1
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
23–27 (46%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓