Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn, AL
·
Turf
·
87,451 cap
Georgia State✈ 100 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Auburn
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Auburn entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Auburn wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Auburn wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Auburn -27.5
O/U 57.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia State 2021 Schedule
Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia State vs Army | -2.5L10–43 | 50.0 | L10–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia State at North Carolina | +26.0L17–59 | 65.0 | L17–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia State vs Charlotte | -4.5W20–9 | 62.5 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia State at Auburn | +27.5L24–34 | 57.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia State vs App State | +10.5L16–45 | 54.5 | L16–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia State at UL Monroe | -16.0W55–21 | 49.5 | W55–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Georgia State vs Texas State | -10.0W28–16 | 58.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -6.0W21–14 | 55.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/4 | Georgia State at Louisiana | +13.5L17–21 | 53.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +12.5W42–40 | 53.5 | W42–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -15.5W28–20 | 66.0 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia State vs Troy | -6.5W37–10 | 49.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Georgia State vs Ball State | -6.0W51–20 | 52.5 | W51–20 | O | Y |
Auburn 2021 Schedule
Auburn's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Auburn vs Akron | -37.5W60–10 | 56.5 | W60–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Auburn vs Alabama State | -49.5W62–0 | 60.0 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Auburn at Penn State | +4.0L20–28 | 53.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Auburn vs Georgia State | -27.5W34–24 | 57.5 | W34–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Auburn at LSU | +2.5W24–19 | 57.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Auburn vs Georgia | +14.5L10–34 | 45.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Auburn at Arkansas | +4.5W38–23 | 54.0 | W38–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Auburn vs Ole Miss | -3.0W31–20 | 67.5 | W31–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Auburn at Texas A&M | +4.5L3–20 | 49.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Auburn vs Mississippi State | -6.0L34–43 | 51.0 | L34–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Auburn at South Carolina | -7.0L17–21 | 45.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Auburn vs Alabama | +21.0L22–24 | 57.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/28 | Auburn vs Houston | -2.0L13–17 | 51.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +53.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Auburn
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Auburn
50.5 — 31.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Auburn won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Auburn with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
23–27 (46%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 1
#1
Auburn
Bryan Harsin #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derek Mason
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓