Oregon at Michigan State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Oregon Ducks at Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, MI  (Big Ten)

 
Ducks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (48 - 9)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (33 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 1.7 (#5)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
MSU 2nd straight Home Game
ORE is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -24  (SP+ ORE -29.5)

Projected Score: ORE: 39 - MSU: 15 (53)
ORE Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
ORE Travel: 1922 miles, 3 hrs behind
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#87)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
 
Oregon's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Oregon vs Boise State-25
Sat 9/12Oregon at Oklahoma State-26.5
Sat 9/19Oregon vs Portland State-50
Sat 9/26Oregon at USC-3.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Oregon vs UCLA-25.5
Sat 10/17Oregon vs Nebraska-22.5
Sat 10/24Oregon at Illinois-11
Sat 10/31Oregon vs Northwestern-25.5
Sat 11/7Oregon at Ohio State+5.5
Sat 11/14Oregon vs Michigan-9.5
Sat 11/21Oregon at Michigan State-24
Sat 11/28Oregon vs Washington-7.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Michigan State vs Toledo+1
Sat 9/12Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan-12.5
Sat 9/19Michigan State at Notre Dame+29.5
Sat 9/26Michigan State vs Nebraska+4
Sat 10/3Michigan State at Wisconsin+2.5
Sat 10/10Michigan State vs Illinois+10.5
Sat 10/17Michigan State vs Northwestern+1
Sat 10/24Michigan State at UCLA+6
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Michigan State at Michigan+22
Sat 11/14Michigan State vs Washington+19
Sat 11/21Michigan State vs Oregon+24
Sat 11/28Michigan State at Rutgers+4.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE#13 (.3)48% (17)36.948% (18)3.08 (45)19949% (13)2544.1 (36)#13 (.05)36% (12)17.938% (24)36% (14)3.9 (92)49.711.5
MSU#97 (.12)42% (79)24.642% (84)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#104 (.21)45% (115)29.947% (121)44% (103)3.91 (93)44.910.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Offense1536.932.847.8%4.11224521992545.452%46%48%49%11%.3
MSU Defense1229.927.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Defense1517.915.636.4%3.91.5 - - - - - 49%48%38%36%18%.05
MSU Offense1224.624.841.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon1530:4821.947%56%5.149.711.552531.1
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Offense1552% (46)48% (18)36.7198.65.435 (16).23 (16)3.08 (45)71% (73)8% (26)1.04 (42)
MSU Defense1249% (53)47% (121) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (66)81% (125)9% (97)0.91 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Defense1549% (57)38% (24) - - - - .05 (39)2.72 (35)71% (69)10% (68)0.98 (79)
MSU Offense1247% (90)42% (84)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (96)2.56 (128)65% (109)13% (131)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Offense1546% (93)49% (13)20.929.1253.68.712.231 (6)10 (34).42 (16)1.6 (38)26% (12)31% (55).39 (36)3% (6)2.1 (61)
MSU Defense1249% (83)44% (103) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (103)1.5 (34)29% (111)30% (74).33 (86)5% (114)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Defense1548% (69)36% (14) - - - - - - 15 (22).15 (26)1.6 (90)36% (14)28% (52).21 (30)9% (6)2 (61)
MSU Offense1251% (52)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (74)1.4 (112)30% (54)30% (78).37 (44)5% (23)2.1 (49)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 26.90  #9
Oregon's Offense Rating: 25.45  #7
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.29  #13
2026 Talent Rating: 1018.00  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 65%  #4
Oregon's 2026 Expected Record: 10.3 - 1.7
Oregon's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.9  #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.7  #10
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 26.90   Michigan State: 2.395

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.9   Michigan State: -3.4




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 2.395  #66
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.58  #61
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 16.39  #73
2026 Talent Rating: 800.00  #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
Michigan State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.8
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.6

Oregon's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 39
Michigan State 15


Projected Total Points: 53
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/04Oregon31Michigan State10Oregon -22.5Michigan State53.0Under
201812/31Oregon7Michigan State6Michigan State -1Oregon47.0Under
201509/12Michigan State31Oregon28Michigan State -5Oregon66.0Under
201409/06Oregon46Michigan State27Oregon -11Oregon0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State110 Overs
Oregon333 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 02 - 21 - 21 - 0
Road Teams0 - 42 - 20 - 12 - 1

(#9) ORE at (#66) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOREMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #9 #66
SP+SP+ #4 #82
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #11 #61
Blue ChipsBC% #4 #39
Oregon Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Angry w CFP routs, love DL but new staff?
(2/12) Lanning replacing OC/DC w in-house hires
(2/12) New DC Hampton potential upgrade?
(1/29) QB Moore back, huge for OU. Raiola (Neb) added
(1/29) RBs Davison & Hill came on LY, good duo for '26
(1/29) WRs still good. Stewart back, Moore, Hooks (UAB)
(1/29) TE Johnson played great to finish last year, weapon
(1/29) OL 2 back, lots of ? but lots of talented options
(1/29) DL back + 4 Portal adds. DEs are loaded & lethal
(1/29) CB good depth, Finney great. S Perich a huge add
Oregon Injury Report
Michigan State Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Excited for Fitz & move past recent mess
(1/30) Starters QB, RB, WR1, LT, 2 DL left via portal
(1/29) Is Fitz a fit in this era? Definite staff upgrade
(1/29) QB Milivojevic vs Fancher (5K pass/1K rush exp)
(1/29) RB Edwards (UConn) much needed. Some depth
(1/29) WR a huge ? that lacks any obvious answers
(1/29) OL 4 clear starters + good depth. Sneaky good?
(1/29) DL looks small and lacks dudes. Big weakness
(1/29) LBs mostly portals but good parts, Cov issues?
(1/29) DB 5 portals, need Saf Martinez to be healthy
(1/29) Better TY, but will struggle to bowl w/o big jumps
Michigan State Injury Report
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #17 #115
ExplosiveExp #35 #30
PPAPPA #13 #104
PowerPwr #7 #73
SP+SP+ #10 #81
Pts POPPO #36 #93
HavocHav #4 #110
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffMSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #121
Run ExplRExp #42 #44
PPAExp #16 #101
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #45 #66
Stuff RateStuff #31 #104
TackleTak - NR
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffMSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #13 #103
Pass ExplPExl #38 #34
PPAExp #16 #103
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #26 #97
DB HavocDB #6 #114
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffORE Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #79 #12
ExplosiveExp #97 #83
PPAPPA #97 #13
PowerPwr #61 #13
SP+SP+ #70 #5
Pts POPPO #64 #92
HavocHav #115 #21
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffORE Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #24
Run ExplRExp #73 #79
PPAExp #96 #39
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #128 #35
Stuff RateStuff #132 #100
TackleTak - NR
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffORE Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #14
Pass ExplPExl #112 #90
PPAExp #74 #26
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #131 #68
DB HavocDB #23 #6
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'26 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Michigan State in 2024 (31-10)

  
ORE's OC Drew Mehringer (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore29641272%356530108.7
Dylan Raiola (Tr)18125072%20001868.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordon Davison112667156.067
Dierre Hill Jr.7565658.771
Dante Moore7315622.149
Simeon Price (Tr)2114426.938
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Iverson Hooks (Tr)72927712.951
Jeremiah McClellan38557314.751
Jamari Johnson32510315.956
Dakorien Moore34497314.665

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Chris Hampton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Koi Perich (Tr)823102
Aaron Flowers691013
Teitum Tuioti68161075
Jerry Mixon574147
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti68161075
Matayo Uiagalelei3410673
Nasir Wyatt114310
A'Mauri Washington335257
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jerry Mixon574147
Brandon Finney Jr.423107
A'Mauri Washington335257

MSU's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Camryn Edwards2101240155.973
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Jaziun Patterson (Tr)6029604.917
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chrishon Mccray24330313.845
Marvis Parrish3620315.622
Camryn Edwards1918619.834
KK Smith (Tr)8123215.434

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Michael Richard Jr.385003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Jordan Hall885321
Anelu Lafaele72210
Keahnist Thompson (Tr)82220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Richard Jr.385003
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Tre Bell (Tr)364002