Ohio at Eastern Michigan Week 9 College Football Matchup Ohio at Eastern Michigan Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 25 2025 · Week 9 · 🏟 Rynearson Stadium Ypsilanti, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Ohio✈ 218 miSame TZ
Away
28 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ohio
30
EMU +11.5
Eastern Michigan
25
P&R Line Ohio -5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ohio -11.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Ohio has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Ohio wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ohio -11.5
O/U 60.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2025 Schedule
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Ohio at Rutgers+11.5L31–3446.5L31–34OY
Sat 9/6Ohio vs West Virginia+3.5W17–1058.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/13Ohio at Ohio State+28.0L9–3749.0L9–37UY
Sat 9/20Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-30.5W52–3555.0W52–35ON
Sat 9/27Ohio vs Bowling Green-7.5W35–2049.5W35–20OY
Sat 10/4Ohio at Ball State-14.0L14–2052.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Ohio vs Northern Illinois-10.5W48–2141.5W48–21OY
Sat 10/25Ohio at Eastern Michigan-11.5W28–2160.5W28–21UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Ohio vs Miami (OH)-2.5W24–2050.5W24–20UY
Tue 11/11Ohio at Western Michigan+1.5L13–1746.5L13–17UN
Tue 11/18Ohio vs Massachusetts-34.5W42–1453.5W42–14ON
Fri 11/28Ohio at Buffalo-7.0W31–2644.5W31–26ON
Tue 12/23Ohio vs UNLV+6.5W17–1064.5W17–10UY
Eastern Michigan 2025 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Eastern Michigan at Texas State+14.0L27–5258.5L27–52ON
Sat 9/6Eastern Michigan vs Long Island University-22.5L23–2854.5L23–28UN
Sat 9/13Eastern Michigan at Kentucky+26.5L23–4849.5L23–48OY
Sat 9/20Eastern Michigan vs Louisiana+2.5W34–3151.5W34–31OY
Sat 9/27Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan+3.0L13–2455.5L13–24UN
Sat 10/4Eastern Michigan at Buffalo+9.5L30–3153.5L30–31OY
Sat 10/11Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois+1.5W16–1048.5W16–10UY
Sat 10/18Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH)+12.5L30–4447.5L30–44ON
Sat 10/25Eastern Michigan vs Ohio+11.5L21–2860.5L21–28UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Eastern Michigan vs Bowling Green-3.0W27–2149.5W27–21UY
Sat 11/15Eastern Michigan at Ball State-2.5W24–948.5W24–9UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/25Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan+10.0L21–3149.0L21–31OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ohio #42
+0.450
Eastern Michigan #51
+0.317
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ohio #60
+0.623
Eastern Michigan #56
+0.485
Ohio Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ohio #86
0.149
Eastern Michigan #134
0.106
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ohio Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ohio #84
+7.430
Eastern Michigan #45
+6.788
Ohio Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ohio #41
+0.886
Eastern Michigan #69
+0.835
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ohio #49
70.1
Eastern Michigan #136
75.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ohio Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ohio
-10.3
Eastern Michigan
-8.5
Offense Rating
Ohio
7.5
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ohio
17.7
Eastern Michigan
18.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ohio Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ohio #67
0.83
Eastern Michigan #107
0.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio #102
1.00
Eastern Michigan #114
1.43
Ohio +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ohio Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ohio #1
55.3
Eastern Michigan #1
21.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio #29
31.2
Eastern Michigan #106
60.9
Ohio +33.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ohio with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Brian Smith #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Scott Isphording Yr 2 #1
DC John Hauser Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
57–75 (43%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 2 #1
DC Ben Needham Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself