Matchup Prediction
Hawai'i
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Hawai'i entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Hawai'i wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Hawai'i wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UNLV -2.5
O/U 64.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UNLV
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Hawai'i 2025 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Hawai'i vs Stanford | -1.5W23–20 | 53.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Hawai'i at Arizona | +13.5L6–40 | 55.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Hawai'i vs Sam Houston | -7.0W37–20 | 47.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Hawai'i vs Portland State | -35.5W23–3 | 54.5 | W23–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Hawai'i vs Fresno State | +2.5L21–23 | 47.5 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Hawai'i at Air Force | +7.0W44–35 | 52.5 | W44–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Hawai'i vs Utah State | +1.5W44–26 | 57.5 | W44–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Hawai'i at Colorado State | +2.5W31–19 | 53.5 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Hawai'i at San José State | +2.5L38–45 | 55.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +6.5W38–6 | 48.5 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/21 | Hawai'i at UNLV | +2.5L10–38 | 64.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Hawai'i vs Wyoming | -8.5W27–7 | 45.0 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/24 | Hawai'i vs California | -1.5W35–31 | 50.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
UNLV 2025 Schedule
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | UNLV vs Idaho State | -30.5W38–31 | 67.0 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Fri 8/29 | UNLV vs Sam Houston | -13.5W38–21 | 58.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | UNLV vs UCLA | +2.5W30–23 | 54.5 | W30–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | UNLV at Miami (OH) | -2.5W41–38 | 49.5 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | UNLV at Wyoming | -4.5W31–17 | 50.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | UNLV vs Air Force | -7.0W51–48 | 65.5 | W51–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | UNLV at Boise State | +12.5L31–56 | 60.5 | L31–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | UNLV vs New Mexico | -3.5L35–40 | 61.5 | L35–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | UNLV at Colorado State | -5.5W42–10 | 60.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | UNLV vs Utah State | -4.5W29–26 | 68.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| Fri 11/21 | UNLV vs Hawai'i | -2.5W38–10 | 64.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | UNLV at Nevada | -7.5W42–17 | 53.0 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | UNLV at Boise State | +6.0L21–38 | 60.0 | L21–38 | U | N |
| Tue 12/23 | UNLV vs Ohio | -6.5L10–17 | 64.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +0.44
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +6.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UNLV
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UNLV
78.3 — 7.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UNLV won by 28
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Hawai'i. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
13–25 (34%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Timmy Chang
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dennis Thurman
Yr 2
#1
UNLV
Dan Mullen #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Corey Dennis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zach Anrett
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓