Sat, Sep 13 2025
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Week 3
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🏟 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Honolulu, HI
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Turf
·
9,000 cap
Portland State✈ 2,585 mi-3 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Hawai'i wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Hawai'i -35.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Portland State 2025 Schedule
Portland State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Portland State at BYU | +43.5L0–69 | 61.5 | L0–69 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Portland State at Hawai'i | +35.5L3–23 | 54.5 | L3–23 | U | Y |
Hawai'i 2025 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Hawai'i vs Stanford | -1.5W23–20 | 53.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Hawai'i at Arizona | +13.5L6–40 | 55.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Hawai'i vs Sam Houston | -7.0W37–20 | 47.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Hawai'i vs Portland State | -35.5W23–3 | 54.5 | W23–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Hawai'i vs Fresno State | +2.5L21–23 | 47.5 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Hawai'i at Air Force | +7.0W44–35 | 52.5 | W44–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Hawai'i vs Utah State | +1.5W44–26 | 57.5 | W44–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Hawai'i at Colorado State | +2.5W31–19 | 53.5 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Hawai'i at San José State | +2.5L38–45 | 55.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +6.5W38–6 | 48.5 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/21 | Hawai'i at UNLV | +2.5L10–38 | 64.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Hawai'i vs Wyoming | -8.5W27–7 | 45.0 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/24 | Hawai'i vs California | -1.5W35–31 | 50.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Portland State Edge
Portland State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +32.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓