Northwestern at Iowa Week 9 College Football Matchup Northwestern at Iowa Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Kinnick Stadium Iowa City, IA · Turf · 70,585 cap
Northwestern✈ 200 miSame TZ
14 40
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northwestern
9
IOWA -16.5
Iowa
33
P&R Line Iowa -24.5
P&R Total O/U 42
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa -16.5 · O/U 38.5
Matchup Prediction
Iowa has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Iowa wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Iowa wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa -16.5
O/U 38.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northwestern 2024 Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-4.0W13–643.0W13–6UY
Fri 9/6Northwestern vs Duke-2.5L20–2637.5L20–26ON
Sat 9/14Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois-26.5W31–738.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/21Northwestern at Washington+11.5L5–2442.5L5–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Northwestern vs Indiana+12.5L24–4140.5L24–41ON
Fri 10/11Northwestern at Maryland+11.0W37–1045.0W37–10OY
Sat 10/19Northwestern vs Wisconsin+9.5L3–2342.5L3–23UN
Sat 10/26Northwestern at Iowa+16.5L14–4038.5L14–40ON
Sat 11/2Northwestern at Purdue+3.0W26–2044.5W26–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Northwestern vs Ohio State+28.0L7–3143.5L7–31UY
Sat 11/23Northwestern at Michigan+10.5L6–5035.5L6–50ON
Sat 11/30Northwestern vs Illinois+8.5L28–3842.5L28–38ON
Iowa 2024 Schedule
Iowa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa vs Illinois State-29.5
Sat 9/7Iowa vs Iowa State-3.0L19–2035.0L19–20ON
Sat 9/14Iowa vs Troy-23.5W38–2139.5W38–21ON
Sat 9/21Iowa at Minnesota-3.0W31–1434.5W31–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Iowa at Ohio State+17.0L7–3546.0L7–35UN
Sat 10/12Iowa vs Washington-2.5W40–1641.5W40–16OY
Sat 10/19Iowa at Michigan State-7.0L20–3239.5L20–32ON
Sat 10/26Iowa vs Northwestern-16.5W40–1438.5W40–14OY
Sat 11/2Iowa vs Wisconsin-2.5W42–1040.0W42–10OY
Fri 11/8Iowa at UCLA-6.5L17–2044.5L17–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Iowa at Maryland-4.0W29–1340.5W29–13OY
Fri 11/29Iowa vs Nebraska-3.5W13–1041.5W13–10UN
Mon 12/30Iowa vs Missouri+1.0L24–2741.0L24–27ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Iowa PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northwestern #129
+0.133
Iowa #100
+0.290
Iowa Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northwestern #132
+0.191
Iowa #93
+0.452
Iowa Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northwestern #77
0.154
Iowa #51
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northwestern #127
+6.387
Iowa #84
+7.508
Iowa Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northwestern #123
+0.791
Iowa #72
+0.873
Iowa Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northwestern #92
72.0
Iowa #7
66.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northwestern
-0.6
Iowa
11.5
Offense Rating
Northwestern
16.0
Iowa
18.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northwestern
16.6
Iowa
7.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Northwestern #112
0.67
Iowa #31
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northwestern #118
0.83
Iowa #71
1.17
Iowa +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northwestern #1
38.1
Iowa #1
49.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northwestern #107
41.3
Iowa #24
29.7
Iowa +10.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Iowa
61.1 — 16.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa won by 26
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northwestern
David Braun #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Lujan Yr 1 #1
DC Tim McGarigle Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
196–119 (62%) · Yr 26 at school
OC Tim Lester Yr 1 #1
DC Phil Parker Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself