Thu, Sep 1 2022
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Week 1
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🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
44,206 cap
South Carolina State✈ 338 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
UCF wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
UCF -43.5
O/U 58.5
Bovada
South Carolina State 2022 Schedule
South Carolina State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | South Carolina State at UCF | +43.5L10–56 | 58.5 | L10–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 9/29 | South Carolina State at South Carolina | +40.5L10–50 | 57.0 | L10–50 | O | Y |
UCF 2022 Schedule
UCF's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | UCF vs South Carolina State | -43.5W56–10 | 58.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/9 | UCF vs Louisville | -5.5L14–20 | 62.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UCF at Florida Atlantic | -7.5W40–14 | 61.5 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | UCF vs Georgia Tech | -21.0W27–10 | 56.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/5 | UCF vs SMU | -3.0W41–19 | 65.0 | W41–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/13 | UCF vs Temple | -23.5W70–13 | 46.5 | W70–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | UCF at East Carolina | -5.5L13–34 | 63.0 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | UCF vs Cincinnati | -1.5W25–21 | 55.5 | W25–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | UCF at Memphis | -3.0W35–28 | 60.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UCF at Tulane | +1.0W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UCF vs Navy | -14.5L14–17 | 53.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | UCF at South Florida | -20.0W46–39 | 67.5 | W46–39 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | UCF at Tulane | +3.5L28–45 | 57.5 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | UCF vs Duke | +3.5L13–30 | 63.0 | L13–30 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Carolina State Edge
South Carolina State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +57.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓