Fri, Sep 9 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
44,206 cap
Louisville✈ 713 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
UCF wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
UCF -5.5
O/U 62.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Louisville
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2022 Schedule
Louisville's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Louisville at Syracuse | -6.0L7–31 | 55.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Louisville at UCF | +5.5W20–14 | 62.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/16 | Louisville vs Florida State | +2.5L31–35 | 57.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Louisville vs South Florida | -15.5W41–3 | 63.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Louisville at Boston College | -13.5L33–34 | 48.5 | L33–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Louisville at Virginia | +1.5W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Louisville vs Wake Forest | +3.0W48–21 | 66.5 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -6.5W34–10 | 53.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Louisville at Clemson | +7.0L16–31 | 52.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Louisville vs NC State | -4.0W25–10 | 43.0 | W25–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Louisville at Kentucky | +3.5L13–26 | 42.5 | L13–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Louisville vs Cincinnati | -2.5W24–7 | 38.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
UCF 2022 Schedule
UCF's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | UCF vs South Carolina State | -43.5W56–10 | 58.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/9 | UCF vs Louisville | -5.5L14–20 | 62.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UCF at Florida Atlantic | -7.5W40–14 | 61.5 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | UCF vs Georgia Tech | -21.0W27–10 | 56.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/5 | UCF vs SMU | -3.0W41–19 | 65.0 | W41–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/13 | UCF vs Temple | -23.5W70–13 | 46.5 | W70–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | UCF at East Carolina | -5.5L13–34 | 63.0 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | UCF vs Cincinnati | -1.5W25–21 | 55.5 | W25–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | UCF at Memphis | -3.0W35–28 | 60.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UCF at Tulane | +1.0W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UCF vs Navy | -14.5L14–17 | 53.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | UCF at South Florida | -20.0W46–39 | 67.5 | W46–39 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | UCF at Tulane | +3.5L28–45 | 57.5 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | UCF vs Duke | +3.5L13–30 | 63.0 | L13–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +90.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UCF with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Lance Taylor
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 2
#1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Gibbs
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓