Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
44,206 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 403 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
UCF
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UCF entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
UCF wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
UCF wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
UCF -21
O/U 56.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UCF
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2022 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/5 | Georgia Tech vs Clemson | +24.5L10–41 | 51.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia Tech vs Western Carolina | -24.5W35–17 | 65.5 | W35–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia Tech vs Ole Miss | +17.0L0–42 | 63.0 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Georgia Tech at UCF | +21.0L10–27 | 56.5 | L10–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh | +21.5W26–21 | 47.0 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia Tech vs Duke | +3.5W23–20 | 54.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/20 | Georgia Tech vs Virginia | -3.5L9–16 | 48.0 | L9–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Georgia Tech at Florida State | +23.5L16–41 | 48.0 | L16–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | +4.0W28–27 | 40.5 | W28–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Georgia Tech vs Miami | -2.0L14–35 | 43.5 | L14–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia Tech at North Carolina | +21.5W21–17 | 63.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia Tech at Georgia | +36.5L14–37 | 49.0 | L14–37 | O | Y |
UCF 2022 Schedule
UCF's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | UCF vs South Carolina State | -43.5W56–10 | 58.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/9 | UCF vs Louisville | -5.5L14–20 | 62.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UCF at Florida Atlantic | -7.5W40–14 | 61.5 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | UCF vs Georgia Tech | -21.0W27–10 | 56.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/5 | UCF vs SMU | -3.0W41–19 | 65.0 | W41–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/13 | UCF vs Temple | -23.5W70–13 | 46.5 | W70–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | UCF at East Carolina | -5.5L13–34 | 63.0 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | UCF vs Cincinnati | -1.5W25–21 | 55.5 | W25–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | UCF at Memphis | -3.0W35–28 | 60.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UCF at Tulane | +1.0W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UCF vs Navy | -14.5L14–17 | 53.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | UCF at South Florida | -20.0W46–39 | 67.5 | W46–39 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | UCF at Tulane | +3.5L28–45 | 57.5 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | UCF vs Duke | +3.5L13–30 | 63.0 | L13–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UCF Edge
UCF +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +45.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UCF
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UCF
86.6 — 5.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UCF won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UCF with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Geoff Collins #1
9–24 (27%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Chip Long
Yr 1
#1
DC
Andrew Thacker
Yr 1
#1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Gibbs
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓