Illinois at Michigan State - 2019 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, November 9th 2019 (3:30 PM EST)
Michigan State -15.5 (48.0)
Illinois 37 - Michigan State: 34 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (6 - 7) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (24 - 24 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU coming off BYE
ILL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -6 (SP+ MSU -7)
Projected Score: ILL: 26 - MSU: 21 (47)
MSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ILL Travel: 266 miles, 1 hrs behind

Spartans (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (27 - 21 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Illinois vs Akron	-18.0	60.5	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Illinois at UConn	-21.0	59.0	W 31 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/14	Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	-7.0	57.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/21	Illinois vs Nebraska	+13.0	62.5	L 38 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Illinois at Minnesota	+14.0	58.0	L 17 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/12	Illinois vs Michigan	+24.5	49.0	L 25 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+28.5	52.0	W 24 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Illinois at Purdue	+9.0	54.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Illinois vs Rutgers	-18.5	49.0	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Illinois at Michigan State	+15.5	48.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Illinois at Iowa	+15.0	48.5	L 10 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Illinois vs Northwestern	-6.5	38.0	L 10 - 29	O	N
Mon 12/30	Illinois vs California	+6.0	47.5	L 20 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Michigan State's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Tulsa	-22.0	47.5	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-14.5	46.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Arizona State	-15.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Northwestern	-7.5	35.0	W 31 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Indiana	-14.0	43.5	W 40 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Michigan State at Ohio State	+19.0	51.0	L 10 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	Michigan State at Wisconsin	+8.0	39.0	L 0 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Michigan State vs Penn State	+5.5	41.0	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Michigan State vs Illinois	-15.5	48.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Michigan	+13.5	43.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/23	Michigan State at Rutgers	-22.5	43.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Maryland	-21.5	47.5	W 19 - 16	U	N
Fri 12/27	Michigan State vs Wake Forest	-3.5	50.5	W 27 - 21	U	Y

Important Stats (2019)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.1	38%	26.7	39%	2.68	142	35%	184	3.47	.11	43%	26.2	41%	42%	3.59	61.3	1.4	3.2
MSU	.09	41%	22.4	38%	2.48	127	42%	245	2.91	.07	38%	22.5	35%	38%	3.36	53.8	1.8	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2019

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	13	26.7	23.8	38%	3.47	1.4	17	326	142	184	3.8	52%	47%	39%	35%	25%	.1
MSU Defense	13	22.5	20.9	37.5%	3.36	2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	35%	38%	25%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	13	26.2	24.4	42.6%	3.59	3.2	-	-	-	-	-	59%	39%	41%	42%	20%	.11
MSU Offense	13	22.4	26.6	41.3%	2.91	1.8	21	372	127	245	3.5	48%	50%	38%	42%	18%	.09

Additional Stats 2019

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	13	25:36	17.2	35%	36%	6.7	61.3	1.4	3.2	9.6	2.8	4	29.9
Michigan State	13	31:23	21.1	36%	62%	5.8	53.8	1.8	2	9.8	3.8	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	13	52%	39%	37.2	141.9	3.8	19	.07	2.68	76%	16%	1.04
MSU Defense	13	46%	35%	-	-	-	-	-.03	2.44	64%	18%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	13	59%	41%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.62	73%	15%	0.94
MSU Offense	13	48%	38%	36	127.2	3.5	12	-.05	2.48	65%	10%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	13	47%	35%	15.2	28	184.4	6.6	12.2	19	9	.15	1.7	35%	28%	.22	9%	1.9
MSU Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.15	1.5	37%	29%	.19	8%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	13	39%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.24	1.7	32%	32%	.21	5%	1.9
MSU Offense	13	50%	42%	20.8	35.7	244.8	6.9	11.8	17	15	.24	1.5	35%	35%	.25	8%	1.5

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2019 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.6 #60
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #91
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #53

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: Michigan State: 6.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 0.6 Michigan State: 7.2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.1 NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Michigan State's 2019 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #41
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #91
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #13

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 26.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Illinois's 2019 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 26
Michigan State 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 29
Michigan State 16

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Michigan State 25
Illinois 24

Total Points: 49

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.6
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.9

Michigan State's 2019 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Illinois	38	Michigan State	16	Illinois -2	Illinois	47.5	Over
2022	11/05	Illinois	15	Michigan State	23	Illinois -16.5	Michigan State	41.0	Under
2019	11/09	Michigan State	34	Illinois	37	Michigan State -15.5	Illinois	48.0	Over
2016	11/05	Illinois	31	Michigan State	27	Michigan State -7	Illinois	47.5	Over
2013	10/26	Illinois	3	Michigan State	42	Michigan State -13	Michigan State	0
2010	10/16	Michigan State	26	Illinois	6
2009	10/10	Illinois	14	Michigan State	24
2006	09/30	Michigan State	20	Illinois	23
2005	09/24	Illinois	14	Michigan State	61
2004	10/09	Michigan State	38	Illinois	25
2003	10/11	Illinois	14	Michigan State	49
2000	10/27	Michigan State	14	Illinois	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	8	2	3 Overs
Illinois	4	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 7	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 5	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#) ILL at (#) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#60	#41
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#37	#32
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Illinois Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#91	#13
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#91	#53
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'19 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'19 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 42° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Michigan State -15.5 (48.0)
Illinois won at Michigan State this year (37-34)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Michigan State last year (38-16)
Michigan State beat Illinois in 2022 (23-15)

ILL's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD