New Mexico State at Texas State - 2018 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Texas State BobcatsTexas State logo
Saturday, October 27th 2018 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -1 (56.0)
Texas State 27 - New Mexico State: 20

 
Aggies (3 - 9) (2 - 9 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 41 (20 - 42 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -4.5  (SP+ TXST -4)
Projected Score: NMSU: 28 - TXST: 31 (59)
TXST Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
NMSU Travel: 547 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bobcats (3 - 9) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 28 (20 - 28 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2018 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/25 New Mexico State vs Wyoming+5.047.0L 7 - 29UN
Thu 8/30 New Mexico State at Minnesota+21.549.0L 10 - 48ON
Sat 9/8 New Mexico State at Utah State+23.062.0L 13 - 60ON
Sat 9/15 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+3.060.5L 25 - 42ON
Sat 9/22 New Mexico State at UTEP-4.550.5W 27 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/6 New Mexico State vs Liberty+3.064.0W 49 - 41OY
Sat 10/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana+7.566.5L 38 - 66ON
Sat 10/20 New Mexico State vs Georgia Southern+9.552.5L 31 - 48ON
Sat 10/27 New Mexico State at Texas State+1.056.0L 20 - 27UN
Sat 11/3 New Mexico State vs Alcorn State-13.0
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/17 New Mexico State at BYU+25.558.0L 10 - 45UN
Sat 11/24 New Mexico State at Liberty+7.072.5L 21 - 28UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Texas State's 2018 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/1 Texas State at Rutgers+16.548.0L 7 - 35UN
Sat 9/8 Texas State vs Texas Southern-34.052.5W 36 - 20ON
Sat 9/15 Texas State at South Alabama+10.049.0L 31 - 41OY
Sat 9/22 Texas State at UTSA+7.049.0L 21 - 25UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/6 Texas State vs Louisiana+3.057.5L 27 - 42ON
Thu 10/11 Texas State vs Georgia Southern+17.052.0L 13 - 15UY
Sat 10/20 Texas State at UL Monroe+10.560.0L 14 - 20UY
Sat 10/27 Texas State vs New Mexico State-1.056.0W 27 - 20UY
Sat 11/3 Texas State at Georgia State+7.053.0W 40 - 30OY
Sat 11/10 Texas State vs App State+18.547.0L 7 - 38UN
Sat 11/17 Texas State at Troy+23.047.5L 7 - 12UY
Sat 11/24 Texas State vs Arkansas State+13.048.5L 7 - 33UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2018)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU.0739%25.343%2.8110636%2602.81.2146%41.347%43%4.3952.82.11.3
TXST.0739%19.840%2.4214737%1822.62.0937%27.636%34%3.349.21.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2



Overall Stats 2018
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1225.319.939.1%2.812.1203661062603.635%63%43%36%18%.07
TXST Defense1227.62836.9%3.31.3 - - - - - 53%45%36%34%15%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1241.34246.3%4.391.3 - - - - - 61%37%47%43%14%.21
TXST Offense1219.819.539.3%2.621.917330147182454%45%40%37%19%.07

Additional Stats 2018
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1224:5220.436%48%6.352.82.11.36.22.3727.6
Texas State1227:4617.332%50%649.21.91.34.81.3130.2
Run Game Stats (2018)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1235%43%29.4105.83.614.132.8168%10%1.03
TXST Defense1253%36% - - - - .052.9958%9%0.98
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1261%47% - - - - .183.1675%9%1
TXST Offense1254%40%37.3147.2415-.012.4257%12%0.97

Pass Game Stats (2018)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1263%36%24.844.8260.35.810.51616.061.537%31%.269%1.9
TXST Defense1245%34% - - - - - - 6.151.736%31%.246%1.7
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1237%43% - - - - - - 6.281.731%39%.464%1.9
TXST Offense1245%37%16.127.5182.36.611.31512.21.734%28%.247%1.9

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating:  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2018 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.2  #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2  #116
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.0  #113

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State:    Texas State: -5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -20.2   Texas State: -16.4




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -5.7 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating:  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4  #114
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.9  #126
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #73

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.9
Defense: 41.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

New Mexico State's 2018 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 31
New Mexico State 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 31
New Mexico State 31

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 31
New Mexico State 26

Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 28

Texas State's 2018 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201810/27Texas State27New Mexico State20Texas State -1Texas State56.0Under
201711/04Texas State35New Mexico State45New Mexico State -9.5New Mexico State57.0Over
201611/19New Mexico State50Texas State10New Mexico State -6.5New Mexico State66.0Under
201511/07Texas State21New Mexico State31Texas State -13New Mexico State69.0Under
201411/01New Mexico State29Texas State37Texas State -10.5New Mexico State0
201212/01Texas State66New Mexico State28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State311 Overs
New Mexico State343 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 33 - 22 - 11 - 1
Road Teams3 - 32 - 31 - 11 - 2

(#) NMSU at (#) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #123 #114
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #127 #125
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
New Mexico State on Offense
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #116 #73
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
New Mexico State Run Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
New Mexico State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Texas State on Offense
CategoryCatTXST OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #126 #113
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Texas State Run Game
CategoryCat
TXST OffNMSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
CategoryCatTXST OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Texas State -1.0 (56.0)
Texas State won vs New Mexico State this year (27-20)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NMSU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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NMSU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TXST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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TXST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD