Liberty at New Mexico State - 2018 Matchup Preview

Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, October 6th 2018 (8:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -3 (64.0)
New Mexico State 49 - Liberty: 41

Flames (6 - 6) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
'18 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LIB 2nd straight Road Game
NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ LIB -0.5)
Projected Score: LIB: 23 - NMSU: 24 (47)
LIB Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LIB Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Aggies (3 - 9) (2 - 9 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
'18 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Liberty vs Old Dominion	+5.0	59.0	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/8	Liberty at Army	+7.5	57.0	L 14 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/22	Liberty vs North Texas	+10.5	67.5	L 7 - 47	U	N
Sat 9/29	Liberty at New Mexico	+7.0	65.0	W 52 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/6	Liberty at New Mexico State	-3.0	64.0	L 41 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/13	Liberty vs Troy	+12.0	62.5	W 22 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/20	Liberty vs Idaho State	-7.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/3	Liberty at Massachusetts	-1.5	66.0	L 59 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/10	Liberty at Virginia	+24.0	58.0	L 24 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/17	Liberty at Auburn	+29.5	63.5	L 0 - 53	U	N
Sat 11/24	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-7.0	72.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 12/1	Liberty vs Norfolk State	-30.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/25	New Mexico State vs Wyoming	+5.0	47.0	L 7 - 29	U	N
Thu 8/30	New Mexico State at Minnesota	+21.5	49.0	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/8	New Mexico State at Utah State	+23.0	62.0	L 13 - 60	O	N
Sat 9/15	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+3.0	60.5	L 25 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/22	New Mexico State at UTEP	-4.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/6	New Mexico State vs Liberty	+3.0	64.0	W 49 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/13	New Mexico State at Louisiana	+7.5	66.5	L 38 - 66	O	N
Sat 10/20	New Mexico State vs Georgia Southern	+9.5	52.5	L 31 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/27	New Mexico State at Texas State	+1.0	56.0	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/3	New Mexico State vs Alcorn State	-13.0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/17	New Mexico State at BYU	+25.5	58.0	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/24	New Mexico State at Liberty	+7.0	72.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y

Important Stats (2017)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.23	47%	25.6	40%	2.1	0	48%	0	4.44	.34	43%	26.5	50%	33%	6.2	0	0	0
NMSU	.14	42%	21.6	43%	2.96	107	40%	340	3.58	.11	41%	27.6	41%	40%	3.17	56.1	2.2	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2017

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	1	25.6	19.7	46.7%	4.44	0	0	0	0	0	0	40%	56%	40%	48%	18%	.23
NMSU Defense	13	27.6	17.7	41.3%	3.17	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	41%	40%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	1	26.5	25.7	43.1%	6.2	0	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	50%	33%	9%	.34
NMSU Offense	13	21.6	23.2	41.7%	3.58	2.2	22	447	107	340	3.9	33%	66%	43%	40%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2017

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28.2
New Mexico State	13	28:20	22.3	44%	54%	6.8	56.1	2.2	2.1	7.3	3.4	3	29.3

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	1	40%	40%	0	0	0	0	-.08	2.1	100%	11%	0.7
NMSU Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.77	70%	12%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	1	52%	50%	-	-	-	-	.43	3.97	75%	3%	1.26
NMSU Offense	13	33%	43%	27.5	106.8	3.9	18	.11	2.96	66%	9%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	1	56%	48%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.48	1.6	34%	47%	.77	7%	2.2
NMSU Defense	13	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.15	1.5	33%	31%	.26	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	1	46%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.26	2.6	29%	37%	.41	6%	1.7
NMSU Offense	13	66%	40%	30.5	49.3	340.2	6.9	11.1	29	22	.17	1.5	37%	37%	.41	9%	1.9

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #146
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Liberty's 2018 Expected Record: -
Liberty's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.7 #121
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #95
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.7 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: New Mexico State: -7.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -19.7 New Mexico State: -20.2

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -7.6 NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
New Mexico State's 2018 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.2 #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.0 #113

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2018 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 24
Liberty 23

Projected Total Points: 47

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2018 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/14	Liberty	30	New Mexico State	27	Liberty -10.5	New Mexico State	48.5	Over
2024	09/07	New Mexico State	24	Liberty	30	Liberty -22.5	New Mexico State	54.5	Under
2023	09/09	Liberty	33	New Mexico State	17	Liberty -9	Liberty	54.5	Under
2023	12/01	Liberty	49	New Mexico State	35	Liberty -10.5	Liberty	54.0	Over
2022	11/26	Liberty	14	New Mexico State	49	Liberty -24.0	New Mexico State	51.0	Over
2019	10/05	New Mexico State	13	Liberty	20	Liberty -4.5	Liberty	62.5	Under
2019	11/30	Liberty	49	New Mexico State	28	Liberty -14.5	Liberty	68.0	Over
2018	10/06	New Mexico State	49	Liberty	41	Liberty -3	New Mexico State	64.0	Over
2018	11/24	Liberty	28	New Mexico State	21	Liberty -7	Push	72.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	2	4	5 Overs
Liberty	7	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	5 - 3	3 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 6	3 - 5	1 - 2	2 - 3

(#) LIB at (#) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#121	#123
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#146	#127
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Liberty Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#95	#113
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#116	#122
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Remains Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Liberty -7.0 (72.5)
Liberty won at New Mexico State this year (28-21)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-27)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2024 (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)

LIB's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NMSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD