Buffalo at Bowling Green - 2016 Matchup Preview

Friday, November 25th 2016 (2:30 PM EST)
Bowling Green -11 (60.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Bowling Green 27 - Buffalo: 19 (Mid-American)

Bulls (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (9 - 36 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.7 MPH
BUFF 2nd straight Road Game
BGSU 2nd straight Home Game
BGSU is playing their 4th straight game
BUFF is playing their 11th straight game
Our Line: -8.5 (SP+ BGSU -12)
Projected Score: BUFF: 21 - BGSU: 32 (53)
BGSU Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 272 miles

Falcons (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 38 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Buffalo vs UAlbany	-23.0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/17	Buffalo at Nevada	+9.0	49.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/24	Buffalo vs Army	+16.0	50.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Buffalo at Boston College	+20.0	40.0	L 3 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/8	Buffalo vs Kent State	-2.0	42.5	L 20 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/15	Buffalo vs Ball State	+9.0	52.5	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/22	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+20.0	61.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
Thu 10/27	Buffalo vs Akron	+14.5	63.0	W 41 - 20	U	Y
Thu 11/3	Buffalo at Ohio	+19.0	51.5	L 10 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/12	Buffalo vs Miami (OH)	+12.0	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Buffalo at Western Michigan	+34.0	55.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/25	Buffalo at Bowling Green	+11.0	60.0	L 19 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Bowling Green at Ohio State	+27.0	64.0	L 10 - 77	O	N
Sat 9/10	Bowling Green vs North Dakota	-20.0
Sat 9/17	Bowling Green vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	73.0	L 21 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/24	Bowling Green at Memphis	+16.5	67.5	L 3 - 77	O	N
Sat 10/1	Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	64.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/8	Bowling Green at Ohio	+15.5	60.0	L 24 - 30	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Bowling Green at Toledo	+24.0	71.0	L 35 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	-3.5	52.0	L 26 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/1	Bowling Green at Northern Illinois	+17.0	72.0	L 20 - 45	U	N
Wed 11/9	Bowling Green at Akron	+11.5	73.0	W 38 - 28	U	Y
Tue 11/15	Bowling Green vs Kent State	+3.0	54.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Fri 11/25	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	-11.0	60.0	W 27 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	.07	39%	16.5	39%	2.87	153	36%	201	2.43	.16	46%	32.3	47%	41%	3.38	43	1.6	1.1
BGSU	.06	43%	24.8	47%	3.09	181	37%	226	2.82	.24	45%	38.3	44%	44%	4.38	58	2.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	12	16.5	8.8	38.5%	2.43	1.6	18	354	153	201	4.3	48%	51%	39%	36%	16%	.07
BGSU Defense	12	38.3	26.8	44.9%	4.38	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	44%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	12	32.3	36	45.8%	3.38	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	64%	34%	47%	41%	13%	.16
BGSU Offense	12	24.8	28	42.6%	2.82	2.8	23	407	181	226	4.3	52%	47%	47%	37%	17%	.06

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	12	26:58	18.3	36%	44%	5.3	43	1.6	1.1	5.1	1.8	0	30.7
Bowling Green	12	28:40	23.3	30%	59%	5.8	58	2.8	1.3	4.6	2	1	26.1

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	12	48%	39%	35.5	153.3	4.3	12	.04	2.87	73%	8%	0.96
BGSU Defense	12	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.11	76%	9%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	12	64%	47%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.11	69%	9%	0.95
BGSU Offense	12	52%	47%	41.9	180.8	4.3	18	.17	3.09	71%	9%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	12	51%	36%	17.7	33.1	200.5	6.1	11.4	11	11	.1	1.5	35%	30%	.12	8%	1.6
BGSU Defense	12	46%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.35	1.6	30%	37%	.47	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	12	34%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.23	1.6	29%	29%	.16	4%	1.6
BGSU Offense	12	47%	37%	20.3	37.4	226.1	6	11.2	19	25	-.03	1.4	29%	30%	.14	8%	1.7

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: NR
Buffalo's Offense Rating: NR
Buffalo's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Buffalo's 2016 Expected Record: -
Buffalo's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #123
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #124
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #94

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: Bowling Green: -0.8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -18.8 Bowling Green: -6.6

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -0.8 NR
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Bowling Green's 2016 Expected Record: -
Bowling Green's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #93
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #93
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 16.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 8.8
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Buffalo's 2016 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 32
Buffalo 21

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Bowling Green 33
Buffalo 19

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Bowling Green 31
Buffalo 22

Total Points: 53

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 24.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 28
Defense: 38.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

Bowling Green's 2016 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Bowling Green	3	Buffalo	28	Bowling Green -2.5	Buffalo	44.5	Under
2023	10/14	Buffalo	14	Bowling Green	24	Buffalo -3	Bowling Green	44.5	Under
2022	10/08	Bowling Green	7	Buffalo	38	Buffalo -2	Buffalo	55.5	Under
2021	10/30	Buffalo	44	Bowling Green	56	Buffalo -13.5	Bowling Green	51.5	Over
2020	11/17	Bowling Green	17	Buffalo	42	Buffalo -31.5	Bowling Green	57.5	Over
2019	11/29	Buffalo	49	Bowling Green	7	Buffalo -28	Buffalo	53.5	Over
2018	11/23	Bowling Green	14	Buffalo	44	Buffalo -16	Buffalo	62.0	Under
2017	11/07	Buffalo	38	Bowling Green	28	Buffalo -7	Buffalo	61.0	Over
2016	11/25	Bowling Green	27	Buffalo	19	Bowling Green -11	Buffalo	60.0	Under
2015	10/03	Buffalo	22	Bowling Green	28	Bowling Green -6.5	Buffalo	67.5	Under
2014	10/04	Bowling Green	36	Buffalo	35	Bowling Green -5	Buffalo	0
2013	11/29	Buffalo	7	Bowling Green	24	Bowling Green -3.5	Bowling Green	52.0	Under
2012	11/23	Bowling Green	21	Buffalo	7
2011	11/25	Buffalo	28	Bowling Green	42
2010	10/02	Bowling Green	26	Buffalo	28
2009	11/03	Buffalo	29	Bowling Green	30
2008	11/21	Bowling Green	34	Buffalo	40
2007	11/17	Buffalo	17	Bowling Green	31
2006	09/09	Bowling Green	48	Buffalo	40
2005	10/15	Buffalo	7	Bowling Green	27
2001	09/08	Bowling Green	35	Buffalo	0
2000	09/22	Buffalo	20	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	13	4	4 Overs
Buffalo	9	8	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 14	4 - 8	2 - 5	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 8	8 - 4	3 - 2	5 - 2

(#) BUFF at (#) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	BGSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#123	#93
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#116	#98
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Buffalo Injury Report

Bowling Green Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#124	#87
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Buffalo Run Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Buffalo Pass Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#93	#94
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 40° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 13
Bowling Green -11.0 (60.0)
Bowling Green won vs Buffalo this year (27-19)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Buffalo in 2023 (24-14)
Buffalo beat Bowling Green in 2022 (38-7)

BUFF's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BGSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD