Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Scheumann Stadium
Muncie, IN
·
Turf
·
22,500 cap
New Hampshire✈ 772 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Ball State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Ball State -3
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
New Hampshire 2025 Schedule
New Hampshire's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | New Hampshire at Ball State | +3.0L29–34 | 46.5 | L29–34 | O | N |
Ball State 2025 Schedule
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Ball State at Purdue | +16.5L0–31 | 50.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Ball State at Auburn | +43.0L3–42 | 52.5 | L3–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Ball State vs New Hampshire | -3.0W34–29 | 46.5 | W34–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Ball State at UConn | +21.0L25–31 | 53.5 | L25–31 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Ball State vs Ohio | +14.0W20–14 | 52.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +9.5L0–42 | 43.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Ball State vs Akron | +2.5W42–28 | 44.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | +6.5L7–21 | 41.5 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Ball State vs Kent State | -3.0W17–13 | 48.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Ball State vs Eastern Michigan | +2.5L9–24 | 48.5 | L9–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Ball State at Toledo | +29.5L9–38 | 45.5 | L9–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Ball State at Miami (OH) | +16.5L24–45 | 40.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Hampshire Edge
New Hampshire +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +27.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓