Eastern Michigan at Ball State Week 12 College Football Matchup Eastern Michigan at Ball State Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Scheumann Stadium Muncie, IN · Turf · 22,500 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 168 miSame TZ
24 9
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Eastern Michigan
29
EMU -2.5
Ball State
22
P&R Line Eastern Michigan -7
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Eastern Michigan -2.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Eastern Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Eastern Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Eastern Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Eastern Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Eastern Michigan -2.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Eastern Michigan · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Ball State 2nd straight Home Game
Eastern Michigan 2025 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Eastern Michigan at Texas State+14.0L27–5258.5L27–52ON
Sat 9/6Eastern Michigan vs Long Island University-22.5L23–2854.5L23–28UN
Sat 9/13Eastern Michigan at Kentucky+26.5L23–4849.5L23–48OY
Sat 9/20Eastern Michigan vs Louisiana+2.5W34–3151.5W34–31OY
Sat 9/27Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan+3.0L13–2455.5L13–24UN
Sat 10/4Eastern Michigan at Buffalo+9.5L30–3153.5L30–31OY
Sat 10/11Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois+1.5W16–1048.5W16–10UY
Sat 10/18Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH)+12.5L30–4447.5L30–44ON
Sat 10/25Eastern Michigan vs Ohio+11.5L21–2860.5L21–28UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Eastern Michigan vs Bowling Green-3.0W27–2149.5W27–21UY
Sat 11/15Eastern Michigan at Ball State-2.5W24–948.5W24–9UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/25Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan+10.0L21–3149.0L21–31OY
Ball State 2025 Schedule
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Ball State at Purdue+16.5L0–3150.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/6Ball State at Auburn+43.0L3–4252.5L3–42UY
Sat 9/13Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.0W34–2946.5W34–29OY
Sat 9/20Ball State at UConn+21.0L25–3153.5L25–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Ball State vs Ohio+14.0W20–1452.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/11Ball State at Western Michigan+9.5L0–4243.5L0–42UN
Sat 10/18Ball State vs Akron+2.5W42–2844.5W42–28OY
Sat 10/25Ball State at Northern Illinois+6.5L7–2141.5L7–21UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Ball State vs Kent State-3.0W17–1348.5W17–13UY
Sat 11/15Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+2.5L9–2448.5L9–24UN
Sat 11/22Ball State at Toledo+29.5L9–3845.5L9–38OY
Sat 11/29Ball State at Miami (OH)+16.5L24–4540.5L24–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Eastern Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Eastern Michigan #51
+0.373
Ball State #134
+0.238
Eastern Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #56
+0.582
Ball State #136
+0.323
Eastern Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #134
0.106
Ball State #105
0.140
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ball State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #45
+7.520
Ball State #132
+6.592
Eastern Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #69
+0.868
Ball State #136
+0.764
Eastern Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #136
75.5
Ball State #106
72.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Eastern Michigan
-8.5
Ball State
-21.7
Offense Rating
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Ball State
5.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Eastern Michigan
18.7
Ball State
27.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Eastern Michigan #107
0.33
Ball State #127
0.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #114
1.22
Ball State #38
1.00
Eastern Michigan +0.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Eastern Michigan #1
28.1
Ball State #1
26.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #106
53.9
Ball State #133
58.5
Eastern Michigan +2.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
57–75 (43%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 2 #1
DC Ben Needham Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ball State
Mike Uremovich #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Uremovich Yr 1 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself