Sat, Oct 11 2025
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Waldo Stadium
Kalamazoo, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
Ball State✈ 143 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Ball State,
while Game Control favors Western Michigan.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ball State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -9.5
O/U 43.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2025 Schedule
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Ball State at Purdue | +16.5L0–31 | 50.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Ball State at Auburn | +43.0L3–42 | 52.5 | L3–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Ball State vs New Hampshire | -3.0W34–29 | 46.5 | W34–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Ball State at UConn | +21.0L25–31 | 53.5 | L25–31 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Ball State vs Ohio | +14.0W20–14 | 52.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +9.5L0–42 | 43.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Ball State vs Akron | +2.5W42–28 | 44.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | +6.5L7–21 | 41.5 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Ball State vs Kent State | -3.0W17–13 | 48.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Ball State vs Eastern Michigan | +2.5L9–24 | 48.5 | L9–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Ball State at Toledo | +29.5L9–38 | 45.5 | L9–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Ball State at Miami (OH) | +16.5L24–45 | 40.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
Western Michigan 2025 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Western Michigan at Michigan State | +18.5L6–23 | 49.5 | L6–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Western Michigan vs North Texas | +12.0L30–33 | 56.0 | L30–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Western Michigan at Illinois | +27.5L0–38 | 50.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Western Michigan vs Toledo | +13.5W14–13 | 48.5 | W14–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Western Michigan vs Rhode Island | -7.5W47–14 | 45.5 | W47–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Western Michigan at Massachusetts | -12.5W21–3 | 46.5 | W21–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Western Michigan vs Ball State | -9.5W42–0 | 43.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Western Michigan at Miami (OH) | +2.5L17–26 | 40.5 | L17–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Western Michigan vs Central Michigan | -6.0W24–21 | 43.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/11 | Western Michigan vs Ohio | -1.5W17–13 | 46.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/18 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | -7.0W35–19 | 39.5 | W35–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/25 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | -10.0W31–21 | 49.0 | W31–21 | O | N |
| Sat 12/6 | Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) | -2.5W23–13 | 44.5 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/19 | Western Michigan vs Kennesaw State | -3.0W41–6 | 47.0 | W41–6 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Michigan
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Michigan
87.3 — 4.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 42
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Uremovich #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Uremovich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 2
#1
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
10–14 (42%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chris O'Leary
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓