Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Nevada,
while Game Control favors Wyoming.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Nevada wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Wyoming wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Wyoming -6
O/U 39.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wyoming
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2025 Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Nevada at Penn State | +45.5L11–46 | 58.5 | L11–46 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Nevada vs Sacramento State | -8.0W20–17 | 56.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Nevada vs Middle Tennessee | -9.0L13–14 | 50.0 | L13–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Nevada at Western Kentucky | +8.5L16–31 | 54.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Nevada at Fresno State | +12.5L17–20 | 45.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Nevada vs San Diego State | +6.5L10–44 | 42.5 | L10–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Nevada at New Mexico | +14.0L22–24 | 49.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | Nevada vs Boise State | +20.5L3–24 | 51.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Nevada at Utah State | +10.0L14–51 | 52.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Nevada vs San José State | +10.0W55–10 | 49.5 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Nevada at Wyoming | +6.0W13–7 | 39.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Nevada vs UNLV | +7.5L17–42 | 53.0 | L17–42 | O | N |
Wyoming 2025 Schedule
Wyoming's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Wyoming at Akron | -8.5W10–0 | 49.5 | W10–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Wyoming vs Northern Iowa | -14.0W31–7 | 47.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Wyoming vs Utah | +24.5L6–31 | 47.5 | L6–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Wyoming at Colorado | +12.5L20–37 | 45.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Wyoming vs UNLV | +4.5L17–31 | 50.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Wyoming vs San José State | +1.5W35–28 | 50.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Wyoming at Air Force | +4.0L21–24 | 56.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Wyoming vs Colorado State | -5.5W28–0 | 46.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Wyoming at San Diego State | +10.0L7–24 | 42.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Wyoming at Fresno State | +3.0L3–24 | 40.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Wyoming vs Nevada | -6.0L7–13 | 39.5 | L7–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Wyoming at Hawai'i | +8.5L7–27 | 45.0 | L7–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wyoming
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nevada Edge
Nevada +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +4.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
3–10 (23%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
David Gilbertson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Ioane
Yr 2
#1
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Aaron Bohl
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓